Random Thoughts – Randocity!

Disney and DeSantis: Who wins?

Posted in botch, business, government by commorancy on May 19, 2023

Disney character balloons, amusement parkWith Disney canceling its plans to spend $1 billion on a new Florida campus, this is Disney’s first salvo lobbed directly at Ron DeSantis. Can Florida survive this fight? Let’s explore.

Ron DeSantis is Playing with Fire

Tourism in Florida accounts for more than $40 billion each year. Tourism also generates massive tax revenue; tax revenue that grosses $11.4 billion in state and local taxes and $13.3 billion in federal taxes annually. DeSantis and Florida clearly stand poised to lose hard when Disney pulls the plug on its Florida Disney resort properties entirely. Yes, “when”, not “if”. The United States also stands to lose a lot of federal tax revenue as well. This article, however, intends to focus primarily on the ramifications to Florida.

Once DeSantis makes Florida’s actions so punitive that Disney can no longer make money in Florida, Disney WILL pull out and leave Florida. DeSantis has wrongly assumed that Disney will remain in Florida. That’s a completely wrong assumption. When state legislators make doing business in a state a major problem to the bottom line, corporations have to make hard, but necessary choices. Some of those hard choices may involve leaving that state.

Musk and Tesla made that choice after California and Gavin Newsom made doing business in California almost impossible for Tesla. Tesla moved its headquarters to Texas and is likely poised to cease all of its operations in California eventually, manufacturing or otherwise. Even though Musk has made a small move to bring some portions of Tesla back to California, that doesn’t mean Musk embraces California for its business structure. Moving a portion of Tesla’s engineering staff closer to Twitter is likely more of a strategic and convenient business arrangement than it is embracing a move back to California. Musk is simply attempting to keep Twitter from collapsing most likely by leveraging Tesla software engineers when possible to do double duty between Tesla and Twitter. Dividing work time between two separate companies is not a job I’d want to do. We digress.

Disney’s stance, after cancelling its $1 billion campus project, is now crystal clear. Disney is on the verge of making a similar hard choice that Tesla was forced to make. Nothing says that Disney’s entertainment parks must remain in Florida.

Disney’s Contributions to Florida

Disney properties are responsible for generating at least $1.1 billion in tax revenues annually TO Florida. Ten percent (10%) of the entirety of gross taxes generated in Florida are generated by one single entity, Disney. Yes, that 10% from Disney alone. When factoring in all of the non-Disney owned businesses which exist because Disney drives massive tourism to Florida, such as restaurants, hotels and transportation, tax revenue attributed to Disney’s presence in Florida could account for as much as 40-50% of all of Florida’s tax revenue. Meaning, when combining Disney’s income with income generated by all other businesses which rely on Disney remaining in Florida, that’s a number that could literally tank Florida’s economy were it to dry up overnight.

Putting a number on it, this equates to between $4.6 billion and $5.5 billion of tax revenue lost were Disney to close shop and leave Florida. On top of the tax base lost, Disney closing shop would definitely cause most, if not all of Disney’s 75,000 Florida workers to lose their jobs. Further, the loss of Disney’s tourism industry would have massive repercussions on tertiary businesses which partially or fully rely on Disney remaining open in Florida. Thus, Disney leaving Florida could potentially cause the loss of another 100,000 or more Florida jobs simply BECAUSE Disney has left Florida. That’s just the beginning of Florida’s woes. Disney leaving Florida would likely cause a massive recession in Florida, followed by major unemployment in Florida, which, in turn, could potentially trigger a massive recession around the rest of the United States, particularly around tourism. This at a time when tourism is just beginning to rebound from COVID.

Because Airlines carry so many passengers to and from Florida almost entirely for Disney’s tourism, such a closure could mean almost certain problems for the whole of the United States. In fact, a Disney Florida closure could potentially even bankrupt some smaller airlines; airlines which may rely on as much or more than 20-40% of their business ferrying tourists to and from Florida. Car rental companies could also be impacted. The gasoline industry might even be impacted as far fewer people hop onto the roads to visit Florida. Even national and state parks could be impacted as fewer RVs show up due to a Disney closure. There are too many industries that wholly or partly rely on Disney’s continued operations in Florida. Without Disney parks, what incentive is there to visit Florida?

This right here 👆 is exactly how Ron DeSantis is gambling with Florida and the rest of the United States economy.

Juggernaut without Federal Response

At this point, Biden and the feds need to step in and stop DeSantis from further meddling with Disney. The longer this DeSantis vs Disney fight drags on, the more likely Disney will consider moving its operations somewhere else, thus ceasing operations in Florida. Worse, the more DeSantis pokes at Disney’s Country Bear Jamboree, the more likely Disney is to perform a knee-jerk reaction by shutting it all down instantly… leaving Florida, the tourism industry and the rest of the country reeling.

As with most types of shutdowns like this, it won’t be felt instantly around the nation. It’s one of those slow trickle economic problems. Florida, particularly around the general vicinity of Disney’s campuses, will feel the closure pinch almost instantly. The unemployment of Disney workers will throw a huge crimp into Florida’s unemployment statistics. From there, like a juggernaut, it will continue to roll downhill gathering momentum and growing bigger, expanding its damage across Florida, then across hotels, airlines and transportation as a whole and finally affecting the whole of the United States.

The stock market will reel at first over Disney, but then those stock losses will expand into the tourism industry as a whole, including the entirety of both the transportation and tourism sectors. Even restaurant chains like Olive Garden and McDonald’s alike, chains which at least partly rely on Disney to keep their restaurants full in the immediate vicinity of Disney’s properties, will also likewise begin to feel the pinch; first at the cash register, but later as Wall Street outlooks dim over Florida’s economy.

Disney as a Global Entity

The loss of revenue from Disney will be immense as Disney ceases its Florida operations. There is no doubt. However, moving Disney’s Florida properties to a new location is definitely possible. Disney isn’t beholden to anyone to maintain its Florida resort properties other than Disney and Disney shareholders. If Disney cannot maintain appropriate income under Ron DeSantis’s oppressive government ideologies, Disney will have no choice but to close down its properties and move to a better location.

For example, Texas would likely welcome Disney with open arms, even though Greg Abbott has the potential to become just as oppressive to Disney as Ron DeSantis. Disney would have to weigh the risks of moving its operations under a Greg Abbott controlled Texas as a result. For Texas, out of the frying pan and into the fire comes to mind.

What this might ultimately mean is Disney could choose to move its biggest resort property outside of the United States entirely. It could find property in Dubai, for example. Don’t think that Disney doesn’t have a task force actively searching the globe for possible properties to replace its Florida resorts at this very moment. If Disney finds a property that’s an equal or better value to the deal it formerly had (past tense) with Florida, Disney would be stupid not to choose to move to that new location, leaving Florida’s economy and, by extension, Ron DeSantis reeling.

The best way for Disney to fight Ron DeSantis is not to fight with him at all. Instead, closure of all of Disney’s Florida properties would say all that needs to be said. It might be just the trigger that causes a massive United States recession, but that’s not Disney’s concern. It is the concern of the Federal Government, however. Disney’s concern is to continue to make money at its resorts. If Disney is unable to do this because of an oppressive government leader, the only choice is to move on and find a new, better property to again house its resort operations.

These are the matches 🔥 to which Ron DeSantis feels compelled to light and throw at Disney. Ron DeSantis, be careful throwing matches because when fires start, someone gets burned.

As a Florida resident then living under a massive recession after a Disney’s closure, just remember that it is you who chose to vote Ron DeSantis into office.

Can this situation be defused? Yes, but don’t think that it also can’t escalate for Florida? We’ll simply need to wait this one out.

Who Wins?

No one, not even Disney. If Disney closes its Florida properties as a result of DeSantis’s meddling, this closure has the potential to be the catalyst which causes a United States recession.

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Rant Time: Twitter vs. Tucker Carlson

Posted in botch, business, disinformation by commorancy on May 12, 2023

pinocchioTucker Carlson, the former derisive, divisive and dishonest Fox News host and puppet for right wing extremists, is now seeking to set up shop on Twitter with Elon Musk’s blessing. Let’s explore.

Twitter’s Demise

Elon Musk paid $44 billion for Twitter! That’s a substantial number. While shareholders and the former Twitter board got to laugh all the way to the bank, Twitter users and the Twitter platform itself got the shaft.

There was (and still is) so much wrong with this deal, I don’t really even know where to begin. Suffice it to say that Elon Musk, a self-professed so-called slightly right-leaning independent (according to his own words), is now running Twitter. However, just today, May 12th, 2023 and after this article was published, Musk announces a new CEO in Linda Yaccarino, a former advertising executive with NBC Universal (more about this at the bottom of the article). Unfortunately, what Musk is doing with Twitter does not at all jibe with this own professed political leanings. In fact, Musk has ultimately made Twitter a completely safe haven for right wing extremists, letting them run roughshod all over everyone on the Twitter platform.

While Jack Dorsey’s team tended to kick any and all extremists (of any persuasion) to the curb by suspending and banning them, Musk has fully welcomed each and every one of them back with arms open wide. That doesn’t say slightly right-leaning behavior. It is most definitely not an example of someone who is an Independent. That behavior shows Musk to be has hard right leaning as just about any other right wing extremist MAGA Republican, I’m looking at you Marjorie Taylor Greene.

It doesn’t end with politics, though. Musk ousted massive numbers of Twitter staffers, leaving only a very small skeleton crew to actually keep Twitter alive. There’s definitely not enough staffers to keep up with abuse complaints or kicking extremists off, let alone properly manage Twitter Blue. With as few staffers as are left, I’m surprised Twitter is even online and working.

Twitter Blue

That tiny infamous Blue Check mark bluecheck next to someone’s name formerly meant that that person is who they say they are. Musk’s move to the $8/mo plan lets anyone buy a bluecheck without any verification. This means that the formerly trustworthy check mark today means absolutely nothing, other than someone is forking over $8/mo to Twitter. The bluecheck no longer states anything about trustworthiness. In fact, that bluecheck mark is now more likely to mean the person isn’t actually who they say they are.

Twitter Blue under Musk has done almost everything to dissolve Twitter’s trust. Under Dorsey, trust was everything. Under Musk, trust means absolutely nothing. Why?

Twitter’s Insolvency is Looming

Musk has already predicted that a bankruptcy is still likely with Twitter. With that looming bankruptcy, Musk is trying anything and everything to make money in any way possible. From that $8/mo check mark to the now $42,000 a month fee for API access. For every money making opportunity that Musk attempts to dream up, each “idea” (ahem) results in ever more people and businesses abandoning the Twitter platform. For example, WordPress has dropped Twitter from its social media sharing connectors due to this price hike. What business in their right mind would pay Twitter $42,000 a month to access Twitter’s API? When it was free, sure. At that kind of money? No way, Elon!

It is then no surprise that as rats continue to leave that sinking ship, insolvency for Twitter looms hard on its horizon. One thing is certain, $8/mo can’t sustain Twitter after Musk literally saddled Twitter with billions in debt. Worse, how many businesses are likely to fork over $42k a month for an API? Very few. Exactly how many billions in debt is Twitter? Possibly as much as $30 billion, perhaps more. A company that relies almost 100% on ad revenue for income can’t possibly pay down $30 billion… pretty much ever. Twitter Blue and API fees won’t work. Twitter’s days are most definitely numbered.

Desperation Level: High

All of the above is the exact pretext needed to understand how and why Tucker Carlson can take advantage of Twitter’s and Musk’s desperation. Musk is desperately wanting Twitter to survive. Unfortunately, Musk can’t afford to continue to throw infinite money at this albatross indefinitely. Enter, Carlson.

Carlson is now dangling a huge carrot in front of Elon Musk, a carrot that Musk seems unable to avoid chasing. I’ll give Tucker Carlson one thing here. He’s definitely a master manipulator. If he can manipulate Musk into endorsing a new Tucker Carlson show, that’s tantamount to a partnership with Twitter. Talk about kicking someone when they’re down.

Because Musk is now so incredibly vulnerable AND desperate to have Twitter make money in any way possible, Musk is seriously considering bringing one of the foulest, lying, distasteful, sack of 💩 entertainment hosts to his own platform. It would be one thing if Tucker Carlson had worked for the Onion. At least you’d know that Carlson’s rhetoric was supposed to be funny and satirical. Unfortunately, Carlson’s crap is just that, absolute crap. He lies incessantly, yet claims it all in the name of truth. Perhaps Carlson lies even more than Donald Trump? 🤷‍♂️ I know that that would be difficult, but Tucker Carlson is definitely giving Donald Trump a run for his money when it comes to spewing lies.

Yet, here we are. Elon Musk is seriously contemplating allowing this sack of 💩 entertainment host to continue his old Fox News show, now right on Twitter. Let’s just hope that Fox News sues the 💩 out of Tucker Carlson over breach of contract and prevents that.

Let’s be perfectly clear. Tucker Carlson is about as far right wing of a MAGA extremist as an entertainment host can get. By Musk endorsing and allowing such a right wing extremist onto Twitter, which further allows Carlson to continue his pro-Russian propaganda along side his insane MAGA rhetoric, this gives this man a voice who absolutely 100% DOES NOT deserve it. Disinformation never deserves a platform. Tucker Carlson wholly embodies disinformation. He didn’t deserve having this voice on Fox News and he most certainly doesn’t deserve to have it on Twitter now.

Sullying Twitter

Twitter, the once shining star of reasonably high quality trusted social media has, as of Tucker Carlson’s first show, devolved into a 100% right wing MAGA extremist pro-Russian propaganda platform. All that’s left is to get Donald Trump back over there to spout his lies.

It’s surprising to me that Twitter has any users at all at this point, other than MAGA Republican extremists. Twitter wasn’t even supposed to be a political platform, yet Twitter has now become a 100% political shit pit. You can’t even be on the platform without MAGA Republican extremist bullshit appearing in your stream nearly every other tweet. You can’t even block that bullshit. You are forced to see it whether you want it or not.

Let’s hope that BlueSky Social, Jack Dorsey’s burgeoning social app (currently in Beta testing), will take over where Musk’s Twitter has now completely failed. Let’s hope that BlueSky Social can also manage to put all of this political bullshit back into its proper place, like Twitter formerly did before Musk’s meddling.

Right Wing Extremism

Some readers might be thinking that I’m only calling out right wing extremism here. I’m not. Left wing extremism is just as major of a concern on social media. Both extremist viewpoints need to be tempered and tamped down. Extremist viewpoints need to be kicked to the curb on EVERY SINGLE social media platform. These extremist viewpoints tend to bring out the problem children and cause problems for everyone, everywhere.

So then you may be asking, “What about the 1st Amendment — Free Speech?” What about it? These platforms are privately owned by non-governmental entities. Free speech doesn’t apply to corporations. Free speech provisions of the U.S. Constitution only apply to the government, government workers and government operated entities. What does apply to these privately owned corporations and applications is the Terms and Conditions and Acceptable Use Policies. If you breach these agreements that you agreed to when you signed up, you are banned. That’s the end of it.

If you want to practice extremism in any form, do it somewhere else. I, and many others, certainly don’t want to see your lies, propaganda and conspiracy theories. This applies to ANYONE in any capacity, whether a government worker, a congressional representative, a celebrity or a nobody. You breach the agreement, you get banned.

Let’s hope that BlueSky Social takes a hard line on this because if they don’t, BlueSky will devolve into the same problem that Twitter has right now, save the huge monetary debt from Musk. Social media needs to remain open and accessible to all, not just those with extreme political leanings. If you want to rant political, go find a site devoted to politics. I don’t want to hear it on social media.

Tucker’s Show

Once Tucker launches his new show on Twitter, that’s ultimately the end of Twitter. It firmly also says that Musk and Twitter are both now in business as pawns for right wing MAGA pro-Russian extremism. Of course, Musk doesn’t care. He just wants money and he hopes that the 3 million viewers that Carlson had regularly on his Fox News program will appear and draw people to Twitter. Yeah, that’s not going to happen.

Even if Carlson does manage to draw some of his former Fox News viewers in, advertisers don’t want to be associated with right or left wing extremists. This likely means that Twitter’s remaining advertisers will dry up. Whatever revenue that Twitter is now seeing from its advertisers will likely evaporate after Carlson begins his stupidity. That’s fine, though. Let Musk and Carlson waddle in each other’s filth. If these two want to perpetuate and perpetrate that kind of right wing extremism on whatever Twitter users remain, I say go for it. I just won’t be there to see it and neither will many others. You can’t sell stuff when no one is watching.

However, I’m all for allowing Musk to let Tucker Carlson hammer in the remaining nails on Twitter’s coffin. This is the most likely outcome. If Fox News, the bane organization to nearly every other organization attempting to offer legitimate news, is unwilling to keep Carlson employed, then it must be really bad. Putting Carlson back in front of a camera to spout ever more lies on Twitter… yeah, that’s likely to see Musk head to bankruptcy court even faster.

Linda Yaccarino as CEO?

This news was dropped by Elon Musk today, May 12, 2023 after this article was published. Let’s talk a bit about this questionable move by Musk. One thing that’s absolutely certain is that Musk is a highly controlling micro-manager. It’s guaranteed that Ms. Yaccarino and Twitter will be 100% remotely micromanaged. Meaning, Ms. Yaccarino won’t be free to do whatever she wants as CEO. Musk will remain in firm control over Twitter through Ms. Yaccarino as his puppet. It was clear in this choice that Musk was looking for a puppet and a puppet is exactly what he got.

How exactly a person who headed up NBC Universal’s advertising department can leapfrog into a CEO position is beyond me. I understand why he hired her, though. Her job will be to bring advertising revenue back to Twitter. She likely claimed in her interview to have many, many contacts in her Rolodex to accomplish this. In reality, Ms. Yaccarino will most likely fail at this task solely because of Twitter’s current trajectory… to become an extremist right wing playground.  It is highly unlikely Twitter can recover from this trajectory. Musk may not even want it to recover. Yet, for advertisers, they don’t want to have their products placed next to talk of death threats, insurrection, lies, alleged vote rigging, conspiracy theories and disinformation.

No matter how much Yaccarino wants advertisers to embrace right wing extremism, there is absolutely no way Twitter will gain back advertising revenue by allowing right wing extremists to become the sole reason for Twitter’s existence. Advertisers want calm, mostly peaceful, neutral places to see their advertising work. They don’t want their products to appear to endorse political rhetoric, propaganda and violence. Prediction: Yaccarino will fail as CEO. Twitter is ticking down to bankruptcy anyway. It’s surprising ANY executive would jump on board with that clock ticking down. Ms. Yaccarino is most certainly not a turnaround specialist, which is exactly what Twitter needs right now. An advertising executive cannot possibly turn Twitter around.

Even the best professional turnaround specialist likely could not turn Twitter around, of which Twitter is now drowning with billions in debt. What hope does a former advertising executive turned CEO have to turn around Twitter? None. Musk simply needs the appearance of stepping away from Twitter so that he doesn’t lose Tesla and SpaceX both. In reality, she’s likely CEO in name only and will remain firmly a puppet for Musk. She’ll be tasked to build advertising revenue, exactly what she was doing at NBC Universal. Musk will call the CEO shots and she will implement them as he prescribes. Effectively, this makes Musk an unnamed co-CEO.

This arrangement doesn’t mean good things for Twitter, however. Twitter is still on course to self-implode probably within 6-12 months. There’s almost zero chance that Twitter can pay down around 30 billion in debt in any timely fashion with or without Musk at the helm, and most definitely not with Ms. Yaccarino at the helm.

Twitter is Dead

Musk, do whatever you want. If you think Carlson and now Yaccarino will be the saviors of Twitter, we’ll have to agree to disagree on that. Musk, it seems you like learning lessons the hard way. And with that Elon Musk, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Buh-Bye Twitter! finger-512

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Starfield: Can this Game Survive?

Posted in botch, previews, video game by commorancy on April 30, 2023

StarfieldBethesda, a now wholly owned Microsoft game development studio division, stands poised to release its new space role-playing game (RPG) entitled Starfield on September 6, 2023.

Starfield’s release has already been delayed once by nearly a year, when it was formerly slated for release on November 11, 2022. Starfield’s nearly year long delay along with being made exclusively available to the Microsoft’s gaming platforms, coupled with its Game Pass inclusion might not signal great things for this upcoming game release. It might not even signal great things for Bethesda as a company. Microsoft is definitely not doing any favors for Bethesda. Let’s explore.

PlayStation 5’s Banner Launch

According to Kotaku, Sony is now seeing banner sales with its PS5. It can be difficult tell what’s boastful speculation around such sales, but one thing is certain, getting your hands onto a PS5 console can still be difficult nearly 3 years after the PS5’s November 2020 launch. For nearly 2 years, the PS5 was almost impossible to find on store shelves. When they did manage to appear, they were gone within hours. Going into the third year, it’s become somewhat easier to find as the demand has somewhat eased, that or Sony has drastically increased production or both. “Somewhat”, doesn’t imply that the PS5’s sales are in any way slowing, however. For Sony, the bristling sales of the PS5 continue.

Because this sales fact means Sony’s console is shaping up to be the banner console of this decade, one has to question both Bethesda and Microsoft’s decision to keep a game like Starfield exclusive to Microsoft’s platforms alone. One thing is certain, cutting off sales to a massively growing gaming segment is probably not the brightest of ideas. For Microsoft, Starfield may not become an overall major problem for Microsoft on the whole, but why intentionally tank part of your company when you don’t have to? For Bethesda, on the other hand, these mounting problems could end this division.

Exclusivity and Sales

Prior to the digital download explosion, the primary way that video games had always made bank was by selling physical game copies. Physical copies would show up at retailers like Amazon, Best Buy and Gamestop. Once the digital download explosion began, not only could retailers sell boxed copies, they could also sometimes sell digital codes for online digital stores.

Because both the PlayStation and the Xbox are the primary two video game consoles on the market for a game like Starfield, this meant sales from both platforms play fully into both the success and the revenue of that video game title. So as not to exclude the Nintendo Switch from this conversation, know that this console also exists and some “adult” style games do eventually make it to the Nintendo Switch console. Whether Starfield would have been tapped for the Switch is questionable. As of Starfield (and likely many future Bethesda game titles), though, producing availability across all non-Microsoft platforms has halted.

Bethesda (likely at Microsoft’s prompting) has made the dubious decision of making Starfield (and likely most new Bethesda games) available exclusively on the Xbox and on Windows-based PCs (Microsoft’s platforms). You might have thought that Microsoft’s Bethesda would have stopped there and just accepted the loss of half of the video game market in revenue, but no. It gets worse for Bethesda.

According to Forbes, the PS5 has also sold the fastest amount of consoles since its launch that Sony has ever sold in its history. That means that the PS5 appears to be on-track to outsell the PS4. Considering that the number of PS4 consoles exceeds 117 million today combined with the over 38 million PS5’s sold so far, that’s a huge number of potential buyers to exclude from a video game’s sales. I did say it would get worse.

Game Pass

For video game players, an all-inclusive monthly game subscription service like Game Pass is a huge win. For video game developers, not so much. Let’s understand why. Video game buyers can, for a relatively small monthly fee, instantly buy into a massive library of games that can all be downloaded and played immediately. A single game that formerly cost each buyer $60 to purchase new, now costs a game player $9.99/mo for 30 days of play! That $10 doesn’t just cover one game, though. That monthly fee covers hundreds or maybe thousands of games available in the Game Pass library all unlocked the instant the subscription starts. No trips to the store. No game discs to scratch up. No wasted plastic. Quick and easy access over the Internet.

Sony has a similar subscription product called PlayStation Plus Essential. It’s effectively Sony’s burgeoning version of Game Pass, with a similarly growing library of games all accessible at a flat monthly rate.

With these subscription services, the monthly costs can be reduced if you’re willing buy into 24 months of Game Pass service. Unfortunately, this bundled deal is only available if you buy an Xbox console at the same time. Still, not a bad deal. If you already have an Xbox console or are looking to extend your existing subscription past the 24 months, the only option is the $9.99 per month deal.

Game Pass versus PlayStation Plus Essential

This article would be remiss without discussing an important aspect around buying into Game Pass versus Sony’s PlayStation Plus Essential. The $10/mo Game Pass plan DOES NOT include Xbox Live Gold, the service needed to play online multiplayer games. This means that in addition to the $10/mo, you’ll need to buy or have Xbox Live separately. However, with Sony PlayStation Plus Essential, this plan offers both access to the PlayStation Network along with a limited library of games. Essentially, Sony’s lowest tier plan is equivalent to having Xbox Live Gold and Game Pass together at Sony’s lowest monthly price tag. While Sony gives you both services together, Sony only allows limited access to games with the Essential tier. You’ll have to pay up into Sony’s larger PlayStation Plus tiers to gain access to more games from Sony’s game library.

To get Xbox Live combined with Game Pass for your Xbox, you’ll need to buy into the Game Pass Ultimate edition, which is priced at $15 a month ($5 more than the base Game Pass edition without Xbox Live). However, that’s still a savings of $5 a month when paying for Xbox Live Gold monthly, which is priced at $10 a month separately.

Why is having access to Xbox Live and PSN important? These services are required to allow you to play online multiplayer games. Because many games these days require Xbox Live and PSN to function, buying into the lowest edition of Game Pass alone won’t allow you to play games that require Xbox Live. You’d need to pay up to the $15/mo edition to buy Game Pass Ultimate to enable play of online multiplayer games along with gaining access to the Game Pass library of games.

Having Xbox Live is not required when buying into the Game Pass $10/mo edition. However, without Xbox Live, you will be limited to playing only Game Pass library games that do not require Xbox Live, which consist of offline single player games. There are fewer and fewer of these games released every year.

Subscription Services vs Profits

The one thing that hasn’t been discussed much with these gaming subscription services is exactly how developers will make money. Right now, $9.99 a month is great for a gamer who immediately gains access to perhaps thousands of games, including many day-one releases.

For the game developer, Microsoft cannot afford to hand that game developer $60 for each downloaded game from Game Pass. Same for Sony. This means that developers see drastically reduced revenue from games on Game Pass.

What this means is that for each download from Game Pass, the developer will receive a tiny fraction of money in a monthly payment tallied up for each gamer who downloads a specific game title. No download = No money. Simply because a game has been listed in Game Pass doesn’t mean the developer gets money. Developers are only likely to get paid IF a player downloads and plays the game. Even then, once a player deletes the game after installing it, the monthly revenues stop.

Let’s do the Math

Console Physical Disc Model

If there are 117 million PS4 consoles and if just 10% of those console owners buy a game at $60, that’s 60 * 11.7 million = $702 million in total revenue from that game’s sales. Of course, that’s what the retailers get. The wholesale price for a video game is around $50 paid by the retailer to the game studio. That’s 50 * 11.7 million = $585 million in sales that went directly to the game studio. Clearly, other fees will need to be paid out of that revenue by the developer who might net $200-300 million or so. This revenue windfall occurs within a month of two of a video game’s launch.

Game Pass Model

There is no revenue windfall, at least not for the developer. As stated above, a video game placed into the Game Pass library means drastically lower income. Instead of the $200-300 million windfall in physical disc sales nearly all at once, now developers must live on a much lower fraction of revenue that gets spread out over many months.

If 11.7 million players subscribe to Game Pass, in one month that equates to $10 * 11.7 million subscribers = $117 million per month (assuming that the number remains steady). This next part assumes that ALL 11.7 million decide to download the Starfield game. We know that’s not likely, but let’s assume this anyway.

If a game developer drops a brand new day-one game onto Game Pass, like Starfield, the game’s revenue will be a tiny, tiny fraction of that $117 million per month. Where a game developer receives 100% of the wholesale revenue from physical box sales, subscription based sales might receive 1% (probably way less) in total revenue from the revenues brought in by Game Pass’s monthly subscription fees. Why $1 million? That’s ~1% of $117 million. Keep in mind that $117 million is already fractionally less than the $585 million the developer could have received by selling boxed copies.

Instead of the $200-300 million for boxed sales for a single game, the game’s developer might now receive $1 million in that first 30 days after release, possibly not even that much. Keep in mind that the monthly revenue collected by Microsoft for the monthly Game Pass subscriptions must be shared amongst ALL video games that are being played and downloaded that month. The more games being played, the more developers must share in that revenue. That means that the more wide diversity of games that are being downloaded and played, the less revenue there is to go around to all of these developers. That $1 million mentioned might actually become $100k because of the revenue sharing and the wide diversity of games being played at any given month.

Revenue paid to developers who place games into Game Pass library is only for actively played games. Once gamers play the game fully, then each deletes the game from their console, the revenue stops the instant the game is deleted from the console. The game developer will only be paid as long as the player keeps the game installed and likely only if the game is launched and used periodically. If the game can be beaten in under 30 days, then the developer will be paid for only the days the player has actively played the game. If many players beat the game in 10 days, that’s only 10 days of revenue paid out for each specific player.

What all of this means is that it offers Microsoft ways of reducing payments to developers based on how often and how long a player plays a game. In other words, instead of the pay-$60 model where the revenue is locked in as long as a sale is made, developers are now under a much stricter, lower revenue model. It is also a model that can see Microsoft reduce payments because of revenue sharing and lower use. If two games were the only games played on Game Pass in a month, that means that Microsoft would only need to pay out revenue to 2 developers from that $117.5 million pool of income. If 100 games from 100 different developers suddenly become active, Microsoft must now share revenue amongst those 100 developers from that same $117.5 million pool of income.

Microsoft must also determine which of the Game Pass games deserves a larger portion of revenue than the others so that the most often played games get the most revenue. Meaning, of those 100 game developers some might only see .01% of the sales while some might see as much as 1% or 2% of total revenues from monthly subscribers. As stated, the point here is that $117.5 million in subscriber fees is a mere fraction of money that could have been had using the $60 per disc price.

It only gets worse from here. Microsoft itself also instantly skims revenue off the top of the Game Pass subscriber fees to cover its own service management costs (hosting, managing listings, paying out revenue, etc). Only after Microsoft skims its own Game Pass revenue is any remaining money left over to cover developer game use payments.

Assuming there’s $117.5 million in total Game Pass revenue (as exampled above), there might only be $20-50 million left (after Microsoft skims its expenses) to pay developers for their games. This ultimately means there’s fractionally less than you might think to pay off developers for the inclusion of their games on Game Pass.

For Starfield, this game’s revenue may fare even worse. Because Microsoft wholly owns Bethesda, Microsoft may have chosen Starfield to become a loss leader. In the sales world, that ultimately means that the product is intended to be a “giveaway”. In other words, Microsoft may require Bethesda to forgo receiving any payments from Game Pass. Thus, Starfield may not make ANY revenue from its day one release on Game Pass. Under this loss leader strategy, the only money Bethesda may make would be from the tiny amount of boxed copy sales from stores like Amazon and Best Buy. Considering the price of Game Pass and its current popularity, not many players are likely to opt to pay $60 for boxed copies.

Digital Sales

While you might be thinking that some people might opt to buy the game digitally, like boxed copy sales, a few will opt for this approach. Some don’t want to invest in Game Pass and be saddled with a monthly expense to keep track of. This means that some digital sales will occur. However, the benefit of gaining access to thousands of game titles usually wins when it comes to these types of sales. Like physical boxed copies, digital sales are also likely to be limited and few. I fully expect the vast majority of Starfield players to play via Game Pass (both on the Xbox and on the PC).

Sleazy Game Pass Sales Strategy

One sleazy strategy which Microsoft has used with Game Pass and which attempts to force gamers to buy a game outright is when Microsoft removes a game title from Game Pass library 30 days after its release. This limited time release followed by speedy removal is solely an attempt to prey on the consumer’s wallet. Many gamers do fall for this tactic and opt to buy a digital copy over a boxed copy. Digital purchases offer instant access and allows the gamer to continue playing once the game is downloaded. No trips to the store looking for a physical copy.

This Game Pass sales strategy is extremely sleazy and is also worth noting because Microsoft could pull this stunt with Starfield; tease players with a 30 day Game Pass limited availability, then pull the plug and force all players to purchase the game full price to continue playing. Because of the purported scale and size of the questing within Starfield, a player likely cannot fully complete Starfield within 30 days. Be wary of this sleazy sales tactic when buying into Game Pass. Personally, I’d consider this tactic as a form of bait and switch, which is illegal in the United States under federal law.

If you’re concerned that this could happen with Starfield in Game Pass (it has a reasonably high chance), you should opt to buy the game outright either a physical boxed copy or a digital copy at full price and forgo using Game Pass to play Starfield. This will allow you to continue playing the game should Game Pass decided to pull the game quickly. Of course, you can opt to play under Game Pass until the game is pulled from the library at which point you’ll need to decide whether you want to buy it to continue. If the game is as potentially buggy as I expect it to be, many Game Pass players may choose not to buy it after only a few days of play. This sleazy sales tactic has a high probability of backfiring on Bethesda and Microsoft if the game launches with as many problems as Fallout 76.

Starfield Sales Cannibalized?

Why spend $60 for a single game when you can pay $10 and gain access to perhaps thousands of games, along with day-one releases like Starfield? While a few physical disc sales might be forthcoming, the vast majority of players are savvy enough to realize the usefulness of buying into a large library of games under Game Pass all for $10.

For Starfield, the revenue handwriting is on the wall… and it’s doesn’t paint a rosy picture. Voluntarily cutting revenues by less than half via excluding the Sony PlayStation – fractional amounts of revenue by placing Starfield on Game Pass day one = drastically reduced income for Bethesda. Instead of the potential for nearly a billion in sales by tapping the overall video game market (Xbox + PS + PC + Switch) by forcing boxed sales only, Microsoft has made the dubious decision to reduce Starfield’s potential revenue down to perhaps at most $100 million in Day One Game Pass downloads. That number is if Bethesda is very, very lucky. If Starfield is considered a “loss leader” on release then it will receive zero in revenue from Game Pass.

You might be saying, “But what about physical disc sales?” What about them? With the Starfield game being released onto Game Pass day one, what incentive is there to run out and buy a physical disc copy at $60 when you can save $50 and instantly sign up for Game Pass at $10, download and play the game on release day sans disc? For that matter, what incentive is there to buy a digital copy at $60? Sure, Starfield may see a smattering of physical box and digital sales, but the total revenue for these sales might not even exceed $10 million. Game Pass is most definitely cannibalizing boxed and digital video game sales. This Game Pass idea is actually one of the strategies that Microsoft wanted prior to the introduction of the Xbox One; basically, an all digital universe of games. Microsoft is moving in this direction rapidly, clearly at the expense of the developers.

Keep in mind that subscriptions can be cancelled at any time. This means that a player can pay $10, play and beat the game in 30 days and then cancel their Game Pass subscription. Instead of paying $60 to own the game, they’ve now paid only $10 to play the game. That’s a whopping $50 savings for the gamer and a massive amount of lost revenue for both the game developer and Microsoft.

While the release of Starfield might see a temporary boost in Game Pass subscribers and in Xbox hardware sales (this is the hope Microsoft has for Starfield), that boost still won’t be any where near enough for Microsoft to cough up the nearly $1 billion in revenue that Bethesda could have had by including all consoles and by releasing only boxed copies day one. Instead, Microsoft has relegated Bethesda’s Starfield to becoming one of the least profitable AAA game titles to be released by a major developer.

Revenue over Time

Subscription models gain revenue slowly over time. You might be thinking that maybe Bethesda can reach the $1 billion revenue mark in 12 months. Video game sales don’t work like that. Video games see a surge in play until many players play the game out. One the game has been played out, it’s dropped and forgotten. The only games which can see continued revenue models are massively multiplayer online (MMO) style games like Call of Duty, Fallout 76, Fortnite and even Destiny. Even then, these MMO style games see dwindling subscribers over time until eventually there aren’t enough playing to support the game financially. When that happens, the MMO game shuts down.

Starfield as an MMO?

We don’t yet know enough about Starfield to know if it even contains an MMO component. Only when the game is released will we know if Starfield is designed like Fallout 4, a completely offline single player experience… OR if it is similar to Fallout 76, a completely online MMO. Maybe it’s like Grand Theft Auto and offers both an offline gaming experience and has a separate online MMO map. Until the game releases, there’s also no way to know if Starfield has been built to support an ongoing revenue model.

It’s clear, the sales revenue for Starfield (as a game) will not be had by day-one game sales. That means that Bethesda must make up for the severely cannibalized day-one game sales by compensating for that major loss in revenue in some other way. With Fallout 76, that’s done by using the Fallout 1st subscription and the sale of Atomic Shop “Atoms.”

For Starfield, I’d expect Bethesda’s team to make up for that loss in day one game sales by forcing an in-game monthly subscription plan. This separate in-game monthly subscription will likely unlock downloadable content (DLC) and other required add-ons. With Fallout 76, Fallout 1st is not required to play the game. However for Starfield, Bethesda may be forced to make this change. Starfield might offer up a very basic and limited gaming experience included in the base price, then require paying into a monthly subscription plan to unlock the entirety of the game. At least, this is one avenue that could be taken. Even the $60 full disc buyers might be forced to pony up for these extras to continue playing.

This avenue may end up the primary means that Bethesda utilizes to make back the amount of lost revenue required to cover its multi-year game development expenses when producing Starfield. As described above, Game Pass revenue alone will not be enough to cover these incurred expenses. Keep in mind that Starfield had been in development before Microsoft bought Bethesda. After Bethesda was purchased, Microsoft has seemingly tied Bethesda’s hands by forcing exclusivity to the Xbox and PC and by also forcing Bethesda to release the Starfield game through Game Pass on day one. It’s possible that Microsoft might rollback the decision of a day one Game Pass release for Starfield. It’s also entirely possible that to play the game via Game Pass, a separate second subscription might be required.

For Bethesda, that means that once each player enters the Starfield game world, revenue will need to be found separately by Bethesda inside the game… and that likely means a separate monthly subscription for Starfield itself. It may also mean paying for a separate currency, like Atoms, to unlock in-game features, spaceships, outfits, consumables and so on. If you buy into Starfield, expect to be hit in the wallet at every turn within the game’s universe.

Can’t progress? Pay up. Can’t fly into a new solar system? Pay up. Need a special outfit to complete a mission? Pay up. Even though Microsoft has seemingly tied Bethesda’s hands for how the game gets sold initially, Microsoft likely can’t tie Bethesda’s hands once the gamer enters the game’s universe.

Inside of a game’s universe, Bethesda has seemingly complete control. It can force subscriptions, microtransactions and a whole slew of other for-pay options to draw in more revenue. As a direct result of Game Pass’s near non-existent revenue, expect Starfield’s game world to be chock full of microtransactions using your credit card almost incessantly. It’s honestly the only way Bethesda can recoup the money it took to develop this game over several years, even if Bethesda can’t control how the game gets into the consumer’s hands.

PlayStation Plus Essential

For all of the reasons as Game Pass above, all of the revenue and low developer payment arguments will apply to the PlayStation Plus Essential service. With that said, let’s hope that Sony will change the PlayStation Plus Essential service name, though. This current naming is completely clumsy and does not in any way state what it is. Even re-using the PlayStation Now brand would have been a better choice in naming for this game library service, as the “Now” indicates instant access.

Bugs, Bugs and more Bugs

One thing Bethesda has not been good at is writing solid, bug free games. It doesn’t matter what game it is, the affectionate moniker of Bugthesda has been given and it is more than just for humor’s sake. This moniker is at once both truthful and problematic. It says that bugs are inevitable with any game released by Bethesda. Bethesda’s Todd Howard chooses to laugh this off as not a problem at all, as if Bethesda’s products are truly bug free. Sorry to disappoint you, Todd. Every Bethesda game I’ve ever experienced has had myriads of bugs and still contain many bugs to this day. Fallout 76 STILL contains day-one release bugs nearly 6 years later!

Starfield won’t fare any better. Starfield will release day-one with a massive number of bugs. That’s not a prediction. That’s a fact. If you go into Starfield on day-one, expect it to be chock full of bugs. Some of the bugs might be minor and cosmetic (lights don’t work right, 3D characters standing and moving in T-poses, weapons don’t render properly, etc). However, there will also be at least one showstopper bug where mission progress cannot move forward. Oblivion had them, Skyrim had them, Fallout 3 had them, Fallout 4 had them and, yes, even Fallout 76 STILL has them.

There has not been a single Bethesda game released that has not had showstoppers. I expect Starfield to have at least one, but probably more than that. I also expect Starfield to have crashing bugs; bugs that see you play for an hour, then the entire game crashes back to the OS… possibly losing progress.

Why mention bugs at all here? Bugs have become the bane of the video game industry. In the 1990s, video game developers took pride in shaking out nearly every single bug before placing their games onto cartridges. When the Internet wasn’t the “thing” that it is today, game developers had to make their games function 100% before sending it out to the consumer. Unfortunately, using the Internet as a crutch, revisionism has allowed video game developers to become extremely lazy. This allows developers to release horrible, bug-laden experiences, then begin shaking out the bugs along the way with one, two or even hundreds of releases… all while using paying players as beta testers.

Unfortunately, games like 2020’s Cyberpunk 2077 initially released to incredibly bad reviews over its horrible bugs. While Cyberpunk’s developer, CD Projekt RED, has ironed out many of the bugs since its 2020 release, that doesn’t make the game’s overall reviews better. Once those reviews are there, they’re there for the life of the game. Those low reviews will remain and taint the review system regardless of whether the developer shores up the game. If you release a bad buggy game initially, your initial reviews stay there to impact the game’s rating long into the future. Those bad reviews, thus, impact that game’s sales forever.

Was Cyberpunk 2077 able to recoup from its initially bad launch? In some small way, perhaps. Maybe through word of mouth, but definitely not via its Metacritic scores.

For Starfield, the first 3 months after its launch will become crucial to its success or failure. Starfield’s release date is set for September 6, 2023. Bethesda’s developers are now all working at a feverish pace to complete this game in time for that September launch date. Yet, we know it won’t be complete even after a year’s delay. If it was delayed a year, that means its bugs were major and the game was as yet unfinished. It is doubtful a year will buy them enough time to fix all of that.

What this means for Starfield is that its initial reviews will make or break it. It also means that game players are becoming intolerant of being taken advantage of by game developers. Game players are not beta testers, yet more and more game studios are treating game players as tertiary beta testers. Instead of hiring actual beta testers, game developers forgo those expenses and expect paying players to report the bugs. Worse, they do. More than ever, this is the wrong choice and it is a choice that can doom a game. We pay to PLAY the game, not BETA TEST it.

Overall

Considering the massive loss in revenue due to Game Pass, the high probability for the inclusion of pay-for-play micro-transaction features, the probable need for a separate subscription, Starfield seems poised to become one of the worst games ever released by Bethesda. Unfortunately, Bethesda has too many “fanboys”; “fanboys” who are willing to buy anything released by Bethesda regardless of its useful state. For the purposes of this article, “fanboy” is used in a gender neutral capacity, encapsulating both males and females alike. For the same reason, Apple has too many of these same “fanboys” type buyers willing to buy anything Apple releases, good or bad. Bethesda’s “fanboys” are just as avid and ravenous and, for whatever misguided reason, believe Bethesda can do no wrong. To them I say, enjoy being exploited.

The purpose of this article is to call out all of the problems that Bethesda faces with the release of Starfield. Because Microsoft has strongly tied Bethesda’s hands in very specific ways, that leaves Bethesda employing other not-so-favorable options to gain that lost revenue back. As a result, I fully expect Starfield to be a poor gaming experience overall, mostly because of the compromises required for Bethesda to make back the revenue it ultimately lost as a result of Microsoft’s exclusivity and Game Pass release decisions. That and Microsoft isn’t likely to allow Bethesda to delay Starfield any longer. Whatever state Starfield is in come September is how it will launch.

How does this make a difference to me as a gamer?

Good question. For you as a gamer, you might not care much overall. That is, unless you’re really looking for a new high quality gaming experience. Though, while the incessant micro-transactions designed to bilk you for money exist at every turn, the rest of the game might seem still like a benefit to you. Game Pass itself was designed to be a huge benefit to gamers, giving them access to a huge library of games. If you don’t like Starfield, you move on and try another. In the hundreds or thousands of games out there, there may be some that work for you. If Starfield bombs, it will simply be relegated to a game on Game Pass that no one plays.

For Starfield, it doesn’t mean good things. For Bethesda, it means even worse things. For Microsoft, it means great things. Well, maybe not great, but definitely something Microsoft can ignore. If Bethesda is forced to continue down this path by Microsoft, as a developer it may cease to exist inside of Microsoft… ultimately being folded into other game studios. Microsoft doesn’t care about exactly who does what as long as someone does it. Does that mean Fallout or Starfield or other Bethesda franchises disappear? No.

Like Halo before it, Microsoft will hand Bethesda’s intellectual property to another developer to continue building new games under those franchises (or not). Microsoft doesn’t actually care who develops any given franchise as long as they’re willing to do it and what they create sells more of Microsoft’s goods and services. Once a franchise runs its course and it’s done, Microsoft is also willing to shelve the franchise indefinitely, like it did with Fable. If Bethesda as a developer fades into oblivion, Bethesda’s IP may or may not live on depending entirely on Microsoft.

That’s why all of this might (or might not) matter to you.

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WordPress: Gutenberg vs Calypso

Posted in blogging, botch, business, california by commorancy on April 17, 2023

books-ipad2WordPress is a somewhat popular text blogging platform. It is, in fact, the blogging platform where this blog is presently hosted. This post is intended to offer up some background history of WordPress and where WordPress is currently heading (hint: not in a good direction). Let’s explore.

Original Editor — Circa 2003

When WordPress.com launched in 2003, a very basic text editor was included with the interface. This text editor was the defacto editor for the WordPress platform until around 2015, when Calypso launched. This very basic text editor was not HTML aware nor did it in any way support any advanced HTML features. As a WordPress user, you had to use trial and error methods to determine if the editor itself and the underlying submission syntax checker would allow any specific inline HTML or CSS features to be published.

This basic editor also did not support or even render such basic styling features like the application of styles like underline, italics or bold or even changing fonts and sizes. If you wanted to use these features within your article, you were forced to use hypertext markup to “wrap” lines of text with such formatting styles. This made editing and re-editing articles a chore because the editor itself did not render this markup at all, which meant you had to stumble over all of the markup when reading your article back. If you wanted to see the article fully rendered including these styles and markups, you were forced to preview the article in your WordPress theme.

In other words, a few markup features worked, but many, many did not. If you included hypertext markup in your article, you also had to know how to craft hypertext markup properly. You were then forced to test if the markup that you included would be accepted by the platform. This made crafting hypertext markup complicated, slow and required a huge learning curve. The editor itself showed you the entire article, markup and all, which made reading an article using this editor a complete pain in the ass. Note that this editor still exists in the platform as of this writing, through the wp-admin interface. It’s also still just as clumsy, antiquated and problematic as it always was.

This 2003 editor fares even worse today after you’ve edited an article in 2018’s Gutenberg, where Gutenberg crafts its blocks using a massive number of really ugly HTML comment and statements. It’s impossible to read an article’s text in among Gutenberg’s prolific and ugly markup when viewing it in such a basic editor. 2015’s Calypso, on the other hand, has tried to keep its markup limited, which served an author much better if you had to dive into HTML for any specific reason. Sometimes simpler is better!

Enter Calypso — Circa 2015

Around 2015, WordPress introduced a new editor called Calypso. This new editor at least supported  basic live text style rendering; rendering that now allows you to see underline, italic and bold formatted live in the editor itself while writing. In essence, Calypso offered writers a similar experience as when using a software word processing product like Microsoft Word. Calypso even supported keyboard hotkeys to set these styles, making writing much easier.

No longer are you required to trip over ugly HTML markup statements. Limited hypertext markup is further included and is often rendered by the Calypso editor. Such rendered markup includes embedding images, YouTube videos and other basic multimedia inclusions like image slideshows. No longer did you need to go documentation hunting for the right WordPress tags to get this information included. This means that if you drop a link to a YouTube video in, the editor is aware that it’s a YouTube video and might render the video itself inline in the editor. The Calypso editor also crafted whatever HTML markup was needed to get this multimedia rendered properly. Early in the life of Calypso, YouTube UI rendering didn’t occur. It wasn’t until a few later releases that it began to render the videos in the editor. Advanced CSS styling and features, however, were mostly beyond the Calypso editor, but it can be included in an article by selecting “Edit as HTML” and manually adding it, as long as the syntax parser allows the syntax through. This situation pretty much exists today even with Gutenberg.

For about a 3-4 year period, WordPress was on the right track with the Calypso editor, making enhancements and bringing it up to date each year. Calypso was then a somewhat simplistic HTML editor, yes, but it was leaps and bounds better than the original WP Admin editor that was introduced in 2003. As a blog author, you were still forced to preview every article to make sure that it formatted properly in your site’s theme. Calypso’s performance as an editor is still unmatched, even today. Calypso launched and was ready to use in under 3 seconds when beginning a new article. Impressive! Very, very impressive!

The entire Calypso editor, while writing, remained speedy and responsive. In other words, if you typed 200 words per minute, the editor could fully keep up with that typing pace. Calypso didn’t then (and still doesn’t now) offer spell or grammar checking or perhaps some of the advanced features that would come to future editors, but not much in the blogging world at that time did. Though, these features could have been added to Calypso. Instead, WordPress.org had other not-so-brilliant ideas and then Gutenberg happened.

Enter Gutenberg — Circa 2018

In 2018, Gutenberg launches and replaces Calypso within WordPress.com. However, because Calypso had been so entrenched in the platform due to its adoption and use over those ~3 years, the Gutenberg team was more or less forced to continue supporting Calypso inside of the Gutenberg editor. The way the Gutenberg team managed this was by encapsulating the Calypso editor into what would become known as Gutenberg’s “Classic Block”. The inclusion of this block type is solely designed for backward compatibility with Calypso crafted articles.

Let’s postulate an insane request if WordPress had requested this action of bloggers after Gutenberg’s introduction. What if WordPress had required perhaps thousands of bloggers to check every article ever written for compatibility after auto-upgrading every article to Gutenberg blocks? Gutenberg’s article upgrade system has never worked very well at all. WordPress clearly wasn’t this level of insane to require this of its bloggers.

Once you also understand the ineptitude of the Gutenberg development team and how Gutenberg actually works (or doesn’t), you’ll understand why this didn’t happen and why it was simpler to integrate Calypso into Gutenberg’s Classic Block instead of asking every blogger to ensure their converted articles are still properly formatted. Yeah, if WordPress had required this step, the WordPress.com platform would have died. Thus, Calypso compatibility was built.

Gutenberg’s Misguided Design and Philosophy

Gutenberg was touted as a mixed media extravaganza for blogging, except for one thing. WordPress is STILL intended to be a text blogging platform. It’s not YouTube, it’s not Snapchat, it’s not Twitter and it’s not TikTok. You don’t need this type or level of multimedia extravaganza in a text blogging editor for the vast majority of blog posts. It’s useless and it’s overkill. Yet, the Gutenberg team blazed onward with its incredibly misguided development idea.

The need to embed graphics, YouTube, TikTok and other mixed media within a blog post is self-limiting, simply by the sheer fact that WordPress is still designed to be a written blog article platform. Embedding such mixed media might encompass 1-5% of the total volume of an article, mainly used to support written talking points, not as a primary blogging mechanism. I’m not advocating not adding these multimedia features, but I’m also not advocating that these features become the primary reason to make a new blog editor either.

The Gutenberg development team ultimately spent an inordinate amount of time over-designing and over-coding what is now essentially a technical replacement for cut and paste; the entire block design that Gutenberg touts. Cut and paste already exists. We don’t need a new way of doing it. Honestly, a replacement for cut and paste really IS the entire claim to fame for Gutenberg’s block system. Effectively, the Gutenberg block system was designed for ease of moving the blocks around… or at least, so we’ve been led to believe. In reality, moving blocks around is an absolute chore when attempting to use the up and down arrow controls. As a technical replacement for cut and paste, Gutenberg is an abject failure.

Further, even though Gutenberg touts its ability to work with WordPress themes, that feature has never properly worked and Gutenberg is not and has never been WYSIWYG (what-you-see-is-what-you-get). You would think that even though Calypso was never intended to offer WYSIWYG rendering, implementing a brand new editor in WordPress would offer this very important feature to bloggers. If you thought that, you’d have thought wrong. With Gutenberg, you are still forced to preview articles using your site’s theme to see the exact placement of everything. Gutenberg’s supposed use of themes is so basic and rudimentary that placement of almost anything, like even an image, almost never works in the same way as the theme’s placement.

However, Gutenberg’s main and biggest problem today is STILL its performance. Honestly, it’s one of the worst performing text editors I have ever used. The 2003 editor still outperforms than Gutenberg by an order of magnitude. If you’re writing a one paragraph one block article, Gutenberg might be fine. When you’re writing a 5,000 word blog article broken into maybe 50 or more blocks, by the final Paragraph Block, the input performance is so bad that the small flashing letter cursor lags behind keyboard input as much as 5 words (maybe even more based on your speed of typing). If you’re a 200 WPM typist with an even 1% error rate, good luck writing an article in Gutenberg. This lagging issue MUST have been apparent to the developers… unless they’ve tested nothing, which appears to be the case.

Gutenberg has failed at almost every design case it has tried to achieve! Calypso still outperforms Gutenberg in almost every single way, even when embedded in the “Classic Block”. It’s the entire reason I exclusively write using the “Classic Block” in WordPress.

Gutenberg doesn’t enhance the blogging experience at all. Just opposite, in fact. Gutenberg gets in your way. It’s slow. It gets worse. The Paragraph Block is so bare bones basic that it can’t even perform a simple spell check, let alone provide grammar checking. Yet, its input performance is so ironically slow for being as basic as it is. Honestly, both WordPress.com and WordPress.org (authors of Gutenberg) are deluded if they think Gutenberg is the answer to blogging. Calypso as an editor was way more useful and powerful than Gutenberg has ever been. Yet, here we are… stuck with this dog slow dinosaur that was foisted onto us unsuspecting WordPress bloggers.

Within 3 months of its release, Calypso’s dev team reduced its launch time from 10 seconds down to less than 3 seconds. In the nearly 6 years since Gutenberg’s launch, almost nothing has improved with Gutenberg, least of all its solid 15 seconds launch timing. You’d think that in nearly 6 years, the Gutenberg team could have made Gutenberg perform better along side adding important blogging features, like spell and grammar checking. Again, you’d have thought wrong. Of course, by all means let’s add embedding of YouTube videos in a block. But no, let’s not add spell or grammar checking to the Paragraph Block to enhance the entire reason why WordPress exists… writing. Oh no, let’s not fix the editor crashing which forces bloggers to reload the entire editor page and lose work that, you know, helps bloggers do the thing they’re here to do… write! By all means, let’s not fix the lag that builds up after 10, 50 or 100 blocks that lags input down to unbearable levels that prevents bloggers from doing the one thing they’re here to do… write!

No, instead let’s build useless block system, that technical replacement for cut and paste, that only serves to get in the way of blogging, slow everything down and serves to make the entire editor unstable. How many loss crashes can a blogger endure before realizing the need to write in an offline editor? Once this happens, what use is Gutenberg to WordPress?

I don’t know what the Gutenberg team is spending their time doing, but they’re clearly not solving  these actual real usability problems within Gutenberg, nor by extension, attempting to enhance and extend WordPress as a text based blogging platform for us writers.

Calypso Lives On

Because the Gutenberg team was forced to retain Calypso within the Classic Block type in Gutenberg, it is the one and only one saving grace and shining light in among the darkness that is now Gutenberg. Without the Calypso editor’s continued availability within Gutenberg, this platform would be dead. Calypso is the sole and single reason why I can still use WordPress to write this article right now. Were I to use the Paragraph Block as the Gutenberg team has intended, instead of being maybe 90% of the way through this writing article at this point, I’d be 10% finished… spending all of that extra time fighting with the major input cursor lag, the hassle of block management and the continual lockups of the editor. Yes, Gutenberg randomly locks up hard when using the Paragraph Blocks, forcing the writer to reload the entire browser tab (and possibly lose some writing effort in the process). Calypso in Gutenberg’s Classic Block retains all of its snap, performance and stability that it formerly had when it was WordPress’s default editor back in 2015. I don’t have to worry about that silly Gutenberg block performance issue.

To this day, I still don’t know why WordPress thinks Gutenberg is better than Calypso… other than for the fact that a bunch of misguided developers spent way too much time coding something that simply doesn’t work.

In the name of brevity, I’m leaving out a WHOLE LOT of Gutenberg problems here; problems that if I were describe each and every one, this article would easily reach 10k to 20k words. I’m avoiding writing all of that because it’s a diversion which doesn’t help make this article’s point. Suffice it to say that everything Calypso had built as an editor was rebuilt into Gutenberg almost rote. Almost nothing new was added to Gutenberg to take Gutenberg beyond Calypso’s features.

Surly Gutenberg Developers and WordPress staff

I should mention that I’ve attempted interacting with the Gutenberg development team, spending my own time submitting valid Gutenberg bug reports to their official bug reporting site… only to be summarily harangued by their developers. When someone treats me with such disrespect, I don’t bother… a fact that I told one of those disrespectful developers. Time is way too short to spend it screwing around with ungrateful, surly people. Unfortunately, this ungrateful surliness has also made its way into the ranks at WordPress.com, in their leadership team and even on down into the support team.

For example, I asked for a feature to be submitted allowing the WordPress user to be able to choose their preferred block upon Gutenberg launch. Instead of actually agreeing and submitting the feature request, I got an unnecessary explanation of why the Paragraph Block exists in the way that it does.

Here is this Support Team member’s quote:

The Paragraph block is the default block in the WordPress Gutenberg block editor because it caters to the most fundamental and common use case when creating content: writing and structuring text.

And yet, the Paragraph Block performs the worst of any block in Gutenberg. If the Paragraph Block is that important of a block to Gutenberg, so important that it needs to be set as the default launching block, then why do we need all of these other more or less useless mixed media blocks? More importantly than this, if the Paragraph Block holds that level of importance to Gutenberg, why doesn’t it just work? If Gutenberg is supposed to revolutionize the blogging industry with its “new” mixed media approach, why can’t we set our default launching block to be something other than the Paragraph Block? No, WordPress, you can’t have it both ways.

It’s actually quite difficult for me not to hold that developer’s (and, by extension, WordPress staff’s) bad attitude against Gutenberg’s lack of quality. I still don’t understand why a developer would continue to write (bad) code for a project when they’re that disenchanted with writing it? It’s also not that this user’s bad attitude stemmed from my single interaction. Bad attitudes almost always originate internally and extend onto customer interactions. People who are that disenchanted with the products they are supporting probably need to find better jobs where the management team actually cares about the products they sell.

Design Failure

WordPress is a text-based blogging platform. There is no disputing this fact. However, the Gutenberg editor along with the Gutenberg team seem to want to rework this fact by adding Gutenberg’s strange mixed media features. In addition to the technical replacement for cut and paste along side these mixed media inclusions, one feature noticeably missing from Gutenberg is enhancements to the Paragraph Block itself, features that if added would majorly help in making writing simpler, easier and faster; with writing being the whole point to why WordPress exists.

For example, Google’s Gmail email editor has, for many years now, included grammar and spell checking via inline popup helpers. These helpers aid writers in crafting more professionally written articles. While the Gutenberg team was spending its lion’s share of its time crafting a technical replacement for cut and paste (its entire block system), Google spent its time helping writers to, you know, actually write. Even other platforms like Medium have drastically improved its own editors by helping writers to write better.

To this day (nearly 6 years after Gutenberg’s launch), the Paragraph Block still doesn’t offer grammar or spell checking built-in. Instead, the Gutenberg editor throws all of that back to the browser to handle. While Firefox does have a rudimentary spell checker built-in, it does not offer grammar checking at all. After all, Firefox is a generic web browser, not a writer’s tool, unlike WordPress and Gutenberg which are intended to be writer’s tools.

Unfortunately, the dictionary included in Firefox is also exceedingly basic and is missing many valid words. This means that it is, once again, left to the writer to determine if the red underline showing under a word is valid. Firefox does offer replacement suggestions, but only if you choose to right-click on the word, requiring active writer interaction. Once again, Firefox is not intended to be a writer’s tool, but WordPress and Gutenberg are! Yet, both WordPress and Gutenberg refuse to build the necessary tools to help writers write better. Instead, they offers us the questionable mix-media extravaganza editor with a poor technical replacement for cut and paste; an editor that isn’t even properly supported or managed and is broken more often that it works.

If Gutenberg is what we writers and bloggers get to look forward to for the next 6 years at WordPress, perhaps it’s time move to a different blogging platform. WordPress, word up!

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Fact Checking the Donald Trump Rhetoric

Posted in botch, ethics, fail, politics by commorancy on April 5, 2023

TrueFalseDonald Trump makes many claims and assertions which have no basis in fact. He does this almost every time he speaks at a podium anywhere. Additionally, misguided Republicans (aka his sycophants) blindly accept Donald’s rhetoric and believe Donald to be, and I quote these misguided people, “The Best President Ever.” Let’s explore how much of Donald Trump’s rhetoric is false.

Donald Trump’s Claims after Indictment

Let’s start with claims stated by Donald Trump’s own mouth following his indictment. Many of these claims may seem to hold weight until you realize that Donald Trump is a pathological lying narcissist. What that means in layman’s terms is that he habitually lies about almost every single thing he says. While there may be grains of truth in a few of his statements, they usually end with a massive lie.

I honestly don’t see the appeal or attraction in listening to someone whose lies outnumber truths and who continues to lie constantly, even when there’s absolutely no need to do so. Why so many Republicans are so willing to accept and embrace Donald Trump’s habitual lying needs to become the subject of an educational research paper that has yet to be written.

Let’s jump right into Donald’s claims…

Claim 1: Presidential Records Act requires Negotiation between National Archives and ex-President to return classified documents.

Claim Status: False. At the time a new President is sworn into office, all previous documents by the previous President must be returned, handed over to and automatically become property of the National Archives. Nothing in the NARA statute requires or even suggests “negotiating” with any former President for document turnover.

Claim 2: Joe Biden has over 1800 boxes of classified documents.

Claim Status: False. A small number of documents in boxes were found and returned from Joe Biden’s home in Delaware and Boston to the National Archives. It is entirely unclear whether those documents had been there from when he left office as vice president or if they were acquired and carried there after he became President. Additionally, the documents may not even be classified or sensitive. How would a Vice President gain access to such highly classified documents anyway?

Claim 3: All past Presidents have taken home classified documents after their administration ended. Trump actually admits to having done this himself (see below).

Claim Status: False and True, respectively. While Trump’s admission of taking boxes of classified documents to Mar-A-Lago is True, the remainder is False. No past presidents have intentionally and willfully taken boxes of classified documents from the White House or any other facility operated by the government upon departing their role as President. Donald Trump is the first and only President to have both done this upon departing the role and he is also the first ex-President to have admitted to having done this.

Claim 4: Trump’s call to Georgia soliciting votes was a “Perfect Call”

Claim Status: False. Trump’s call to Georgia’s elections official to solicit those officials to “find” 11,780 votes for Trump is not only NOT a “Perfect Call”, it very likely constitutes malicious intent to willfully solicit conspiracy and interfere with the 2020 election in Georgia. Willful election interference is a crime in Georgia.

Claim 5: Trump claims that America is experiencing the highest inflation in 60 years.

Claim Status: False. In 1979, 42 years ago, the annual inflation rate was 13.3%, 7.3% higher than our current 6% annual inflation rate as of February 2023. Let’s further put his statement into broader perspective. Donald Trump ushered in our current inflation rate as part of his own failure in handling the first year of the COVID pandemic. The United States is presently in the midst of inflation, not because of Biden, but because of Trump’s economic mismanagement of the pandemic his final year in office.

Claim 6: Trump’s claims about ballot box stuffing in the 2020 election were “all caught on government cameras.”

Claim Status: Mostly False, but also slightly True. It is categorically False and was never proven in Donald Trump’s over 63 election lawsuits that ballot box stuffing ever took place at any actual 2020 election polling places. Such activity was also never caught “on government cameras.” If it had been, he wouldn’t have lost over 63 lawsuits with this exact argument. However, Donald Trump himself did attempt to use the court system and the Insurrection itself to stuff his own ballots into ballot boxes to sway the election in his favor. Thus, his statement is somewhat True that ballot box stuffing was attempted, but only by Donald Trump himself and, by extension, those in the Republican party. In fact, many Republicans are still attempting to sway elections by heavy gerrymandering, which should be considered a form of ballot box stuffing and election interference.

Claim 7: $85 billion worth of equipment was left in Afghanistan after US withdrawal.

Claim Status: False. Around ~$83 billion total was spent on managing portions of the US occupation of Afghanistan. On withdrawal, around $7 billion in total equipment was left behind, much of it left in an inoperable state. Let’s understand the further subtext over Trump’s statement. Donald Trump was instrumental in negotiating with the Taliban in his final year in office over the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was planned for early 2020. Thus, the Afghanistan withdrawal and any associated costs of equipment left behind was a direct result of Donald Trump’s meddling in Afghanistan’s affairs. Donald Trump left behind an exceedingly short timetable for Joe Biden to execute a proper withdrawal, forcing this action just a few months after his inauguration. Thus, Donald Trump is actually at least partially responsible, along with Joe Biden, for the cost of any equipment left behind and any casualties after withdrawal from Afghanistan due to Trump’s exceedingly short timetable that Biden likely felt forced to uphold.

Claim 8: Illegal and unconstitutional raid on Mar-A-Lago

Claim Status: False. After months of the failure in negotiations back and forth between Trump and the National Archives to return documents, the FBI was sent with a legally issued, judge authorized, properly signed and carefully executed search warrant to search and seize the documents that Donald Trump brought with him from the White House to Mar-A-Lago. The search was not a “raid”.  The search was conducted in an orderly fashion as written in the warrant. Documents were seized by the FBI in relation to those required by the warrant. Further context follows. Donald Trump was given every opportunity over many months to surrender all documents involving the National Archives, but chose to ignore those requests. The search and seizure was only required by the FBI because Donald Trump himself failed to comply with repeated requests by the National Archives to return requested documents; documents that Donald Trump claimed he did not have, but which were subsequently found during the legal search.

Claim 9: DOJ / FBI lying to FISA Court to gain access to spy on Trump Aide

Claim Status: Somewhat True and somewhat False. At the time, the FBI was investigating a Trump aide for possibly spying in relation to the 2020 election. When the FBI submitted its request to FISA, it believed that it then had probable cause for the investigation (False). It was later determined that the FBI’s probable cause might not have been valid (True). Further context is warranted. Because this situation happened under Trump’s Presidency, he should have done something as President. Clearly, he didn’t. As the then sitting President, Trump complaining after-the-fact about a situation that he could have handled then is his own fault and of his own making and no one else’s.

Claim 10: Alleged democrat unconstitutional changes to election laws by not getting approvals from state legislators

Claim Status: Ambiguous. Trump is guilty of this himself. By Trump attempting to seat false electors in the 2020 election, who would then vote in Trump’s favor instead of the duly authorized electors during the electoral college vote, this is actually an unconstitutional change to election laws unapproved by states. Second, by requesting Mike Pence to throw the electoral college confirmation in Trump’s favor (remember, the “‘Hang Mike Pence’ chant?”) during the insurrection, this is also another example of unconstitutional changes to election laws not state approved. While Trump may be calling out a different event in his own mind, these are the two events that most people will remember that Trump perpetrated on the United States… events which fully fit Trump’s claim.

Claim 11: The DOJ was working in collusion with Facebook and Twitter to hide and suppress data involving the Hunter Biden Laptop.

Claim Status: False. Twitter and Facebook have never colluded with anyone in the government. Information about the Hunter Biden laptop was never hidden from anyone on Twitter or Facebook. Any posts removed or hidden were done so by each respective company’s staff. Further context is required. The alleged Hunter Biden laptop has never been proven to have ever been owned by Hunter Biden himself. A person purporting to be Hunter Biden, but never properly identified, dropped off a laptop at a repair shop. The repair shop owner turned the laptop over to the FBI. The laptop has never been proven to have ever been owned by anyone in the Biden family. The contents of the alleged laptop hard drive were supposedly copied prior to being handed over. The alleged hard drive content supposedly has incriminating data, but again nothing on that hard drive has been shown to implicate Hunter Biden or indeed even hold incriminating evidence. The data, the laptop and the situation were likely fabricated to disparage the Biden family. This one is solely a false talking point by the Republicans intended solely to disparage the Democrats and, more specifically, the Biden family.

Claim 11: Massive election interference (via Alvin Bragg)

Claim Status: False, but true in other ways. Context required. In point of fact, there is massive election interference occurring today, but not by the Democrats. It is actually a point of fact that Republicans are perpetrating massive election interference through heavy gerrymandering in their respective states. By redrawing district lines in convoluted and complex patterns solely designed to dilute Democrat voters into fewer numbers and concentrate Republican voters in greater numbers, this ensures Republicans win state (and federal) elections when they otherwise would not. Gerrymandering is a form of election interference on a massive scale. Gerrymandering is designed to allow politicians and legislators to pick their voters, subverting the will of the voters to pick their candidates. Additionally, Republican led states have tampered with voting laws by attempting to outlaw vote-by-mail and other similar proxy voting mechanisms in favor of in-person day of voting. These law changes are intended to exclude many legal voters (such as disabled individuals and veterans) as yet another means to allow Republicans to pick their voters, not the other way around as elections should require. Further, Donald Trump allegedly sought to interfere with both the 2016 and 2020 elections. See above to cite DJT’s interference with the 2020 election.

Claim 12: Alvin Bragg case “never should have been brought”

Claim Status: Wishful thinking. Donald Trump lived and worked in New York prior to his Presidency. Bragg’s indictment states 34 counts of falsifying business records with intent to commit “another crime” prior to the election. With this article, it’s pretty much proven that Donald J. Trump is a pathological liar. Lying this pathologically goes to prove that Donald Trump is not a trustworthy person and is not credible. Alvin Bragg has not proven himself to be a pathological liar or untrustworthy. As such, the Alvin Bragg indictment is a whole lot more credible than Donald Trump’s wishful thinking and statements of being “Not Guilty.” However, “guilty until proven innocent” is how the United States rolls. In that goal, let’s allow Alvin Bragg’s indictment to be brought to trial so Donald Trump can prove that Bragg’s indictment is indeed not valid, which will allow a jury to decide the matter of Donald Trump.

Claim 13: Crime statistics in Democrat run cities are the likes of which we have never seen before.

Claim Status: False. Republican led states far outpace crime over Democrat run states. Democrat run cities within Republican run states do have higher crime rates, but that’s only because the states are Republican run, operating under much more lax Republican state crime and gun laws. In fact, gun violence in Republican run (Red) states far outpaces gun violence perpetrated in Democrat run (Blue) states. It is actually Republican led states that have far higher crime problems than Democrat states. Most Democrat run cities in Democrat run states do not have the same crime rate problems as Democrat run cities in Republican run states.

Claim 14: In the 2020 election, DJT claims he won 75 million votes, “which is more than any sitting President in the history of our country.”

Claim Status: False. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump did not get 75 million votes. He received 74,222,958 votes. Rounding that, you’d round it down to 74 million votes. It gets worse, though. Joe Biden, in fact, won 81,283,098 votes (or 81 million votes). If anyone has the distinction of winning the most votes in United States Presidential history (based solely on Trump’s statement), it is in fact, Joe Biden who gets that honor. And yet, here we have Donald Trump taking credit for an honor which he didn’t earn and doesn’t deserve. Note that in 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, but still managed to win the electoral college.

Claim 15: “[Documents] that I openly and in very plain sight brought with me to Mar-A-Lago from our beautiful White House…”

Claim Status: True. Donald Trump has confessed to having brought classified documents from the White House to Mar-A-Lago after having left office as President for a few hours, but then as ex-President after Biden’s inauguration. As ex-President, these (still classified) records were no longer Trump’s records and he had no more right to remain in possession of these classified documents after becoming ex-President. Admitting to having taken classified documents without authorization is probably exactly the admission and evidence that DOJ’s Jack Smith needs to majorly help indict and convict Trump’s case. Donald Trump needs to learn to shut his mouth.

Claim 16: “As President, I have the right to declassify documents, and the process is automatic.”

Claim Status: True and False, respectively. It is True that as sitting President, the President holds the rights to declassify some documents. It is absolutely False that the process is automatic. To declassify documents as President, forms must be filled out and submitted so that the National Archives can ascertain validity of the request and so that the documents can become properly reclassified in the archive. It does not and cannot happen automatically. However, the President cannot declassify certain types of statutorily protected documents at all, not even by thinking about it or by using paperwork. As an ex-President, however, the power to declassify documents is forfeit and lost. Simply walking out of the White House with boxes of documents in hand as soon-to-be-ex-President is not sufficient to ‘automatically’ declassify documents. The appropriate paperwork must be filled and filed to both verify if the document can be declassified and also to request the archive to update its classification, if so. If the President didn’t request these actions prior to becoming ex-President, then the documents should not be considered declassified. As stated, statutorily protected documents simply cannot be declassified at all by a sitting President. Possessing any of these statutorily protected documents as ex-President should be considered a felony. If Trump’s team had submitted declassifying document forms within 30 days of having exited the White House, the now Biden controlled government would probably have been lenient enough to accept the declassifying requests on Trump’s behalf, with the exception of statutorily protected documents, of course. I mean, how hard is it to do the right thing?

Republican Claims

While many of the Republican talking points have been covered by Donald Trump’s claims above, with those talking points lifted almost verbatim from Trump’s speeches, let’s discuss the delusions that many Republican voters are under about Donald Trump. Further, let’s validate these continually regurgitated Republican talking points.

Delusion 1: Donald Trump ushered in and presided over the best economic prosperity ever seen in the United States as the 45th President.

Delusion Status: False. Donald Trump didn’t usher in United States economic prosperity during his tenure. This economic prosperity is falsely attributed to Donald Trump. The prosperity that carried through Trump’s first 3 years during his Presidency was as a direct result of Barrack Obama. Obama ushered in this prosperity after the 2008 mortgage meltdown almost tanked the entire economy. It was Barrack Obama who spent the time and effort to rebound the economy to the prosperous level seen in 2015, just prior to Trump taking office. Once Trump took office, Trump rode Obama’s economic wave for his first 3 years, until the economy slowed in early 2019 and then COVID happened and fully tanked the economy. If Trump were the economic savior he is so readily touted and claims to be, Trump’s fourth year in office should have remained as prosperous as the 3 years prior, regardless of COVID. Note that economic prosperity includes job gains, inflation, wages and all manner of other metrics that Donald Trump rode and took personal credit for, but which happened because of Obama. One thing that Trump can take full credit for is tanking the economy once COVID arrived. Yet another dubious honor.

Delusion 2: Unemployment was at its lowest rate ever under Trump.

Delusion Status: False. Donald Trump presided over 2.9 million lost jobs over his 4 years in office. The unemployment rate went up by 1.6% to 6.3%. Compare that to the end of 2022 when the unemployment rate was 2.2% under Biden.

Delusion 3: The deficit was at its lowest rate ever in the history of the United States.

Delusion Status: False. Under Donald Trump, the United States deficit actually increased almost exponentially, skyrocketing from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion, the most ever for a one term president. A dubious honor to be sure.

Delusion 4: There were no wars under Donald Trump.

Delusion Status: False. While the United States entered no “new wars”, existing and inherited wars grew both in size and in monetary expenditures under Donald Trump. Trump even exacerbated these inherited wars causing even more death and destruction by his own actions, including the use of expensive drones. Trumps claims are just that, claims… and false ones at that.

Delusion 5: Gas prices were the cheapest ever under Trump.

Delusion Status: False. Donald Trump presided over somewhat cheaper gasoline prices between 2016 and 2019 than between 2010-2015 (which averaged over $3). The average price of a gallon of gas during Donald Trump’s presidency ranged between $2.00 and $2.75 per gallon. In fact, when Biden took office, gas prices began to decline a little over Trump’s term for at least Biden’s first year in office. After that, the gas price gouging situation began, echoing similar prices seen during some of Obama’s term in office. In the year 2000, though, the United States had seen gas prices drop to around 99¢ per gallon at the time, far cheaper than was ever seen during Trump’s time in office. More false rhetoric.

Delusion 6: Democrats are ushering in higher crime rates.

Delusion Status: False. In fact, this situation is truthfully the opposite. Republican led states are ushering in some of the highest crime rates in the nation. This is mostly because Republicans are NRA friendly, if not NRA backed. Thus, Republicans refuse to write legislation to control guns. Many Republican led states are now crafting and signing new legislation to both legalize guns even more and allow such activities as concealed carrying without a permit. For example, Republican Ron DeSantis recently signed a permitless concealed carry into law in Florida. Republicans are clearly very, very gun friendly legislatively, to the point that it is now facilitating skyrocketing crime rates and homicide statistics in Republican led states.

Delusion 7: Democrat cities are ushering in higher crime rates.

Delusion Status: Ambiguous and False. The subtext of this false narrative is to disparage Democrats without explaining that Republicans are actually responsible for this situation. Democrat run cities that are now experiencing higher than normal crime rates in those cities which exist within Republican led states. It is then no surprise that because Republicans are writing state legislation to relax gun laws, allowing open carry and even permitless concealed carry and easier access to buying guns, that the crime rate in all cities in those Republican states is skyrocketing. Thus, this false rhetoric is designed to ignore the fact that it is the Republicans who are actually responsible for the skyrocketing crime rates in those Democrat run cities.

Delusion 8: Democrats are responsible for the open border crisis.

Delusion Status: Mostly false. While Joe Biden has made a few questionable maneuvers regarding securing the border, Republicans are the ones making this situation worse. With Greg Abbott human trafficking immigrants across the country to other states along with Ron DeSantis, which is a federal crime, this action is backfiring on the Republicans. Abbott’s trafficking is actually having the opposite effect by encouraging even more immigrants to arrive at the border so they can be bussed into the United States. While Biden hasn’t sufficiently secured the border, it is the Republicans who are causing the borders to become clogged due to their cushy busses, free transportation and free food and lodging that Greg Abbott is giving to the immigrants the moment they get here. It is Abbott who is welcoming the immigrants with open arms, not Biden. The border security is actually the responsibility of Greg Abbott, in coordination with the border patrol. It is not Joe Biden’s responsibility. If Greg Abbott is not actively trying to secure the border, that failure falls almost squarely on Texas and Abbott, not on Biden. Once again, the false delusional rhetoric is the responsibility of the Republicans, not the Democrats.

Delusion 9: Donald Trump is the best president EVAR!

Delusion Claim: False. Donald Trump has actually proven himself to be the worst President in United States History. What other sitting president fomented a violent insurrection against the government? Donald Trump has had a lot of firsts, but none of these firsts are something to be proud of, nor do any of these firsts prove Trump to be a great or even good President. These firsts are of dubious distinction:

  1. President Donald Trump fomented and incited a violent Insurrection on the United States Capitol building for the sole purposes of causing election interference, entirely for the purposes of keeping himself in power as the President of the United States beyond his Constitutionally mandated 4 year term.
  2. President Donald Trump took many boxes of allegedly classified documents from the White House back to his home in Mar-A-Lago in Florida; boxes that hadn’t been proven to be declassified at the time. Trump argues that he declassified them simply by thinking about it. That’s not one of the legally adopted US Government processes required to declassify documents. The legal process involves filling out paperwork, submitting it to the archives and having that request accepted and acknowledged. If the archive staff wasn’t aware the documents were declassified, then they are not declassified. Attempting to declassify them as an ex-President also isn’t possible.
  3. President Donald Trump was the only President to have been impeached by the House of Representatives twice. He was also the first President to have been denied conviction by the Senate twice.
  4. Donald Trump is the first former President of the United States to have been criminally indicted by any prosecutor.

There are likely many more firsts yet to come, but these above are the highlights (err… lowlights) of Donald Trump’s dubious Presidency. In addition to the false rhetoric already refuted above, Donald Trump’s term wasn’t spectacular by any Presidential standard. While Trump certainly wasn’t the first president to serve only one term, Trump most definitely shares in a very small group of Presidents who have only served one term including: 

  1. James Buchanan
  2. Andrew Johnson
  3. Franklin Pierce
  4. William Henry Harrison
  5. John Tyler
  6. Millard Fillmore
  7. Warren G. Harding
  8. Herbert Hoover
  9. Zachary Taylor
  10. Martin Van Buren
  11. Rutherford B. Hayes
  12. Benjamin Harrison
  13. Chester A. Arthur
  14. Gerald Ford
  15. James Garfield
  16. Jimmy Carter
  17. William Howard Taft
  18. George H. W. Bush
  19. James K. Polk
  20. John Quincy Adams
  21. John Adams
  22. John F. Kennedy (for obvious reasons)
  23. Donald J. Trump

Donald Trump served as President, yes, but didn’t really help the United States very much. Most countries laughed at Trump like a clown and easily saw through Trump’s crass veneer. He raised the deficit by tremendous amounts, spending vast amounts of money, but not really providing much benefit to United States citizens. Because Obama had already set the economy on an upward trajectory, Donald Trump didn’t have to do much to keep that trajectory on track. He simply needed to not interfere with it and that’s what he did (or rather, didn’t do). Donald Trump’s legacy, however, wasn’t that he was mostly a do-nothing President. It would be how he handled his final year in office and specifically what happened on January 6th that effectively eclipsed his previous 4 years of service and rewrote his historical legacy as the 45th President.

Because Donald Trump was ill-prepared to handle the pandemic, he first tried to ignore it. When that didn’t work, he then tried to do as little as possible. This left the United States open to the rapid spread of it. While the CDC and other health agencies tried to steer Donald Trump in the right direction, he was having none of it. This meant that many hundreds of thousands of people died of COVID-19 in the early days because Donald Trump failed and refused to do anything.

It wasn’t until his approval ratings dropped to all time lows that he began to work on such projects as Operation Warp Speed, to develop and push through vaccines quickly. While he did preside over such health projects, it was too little, too late… at least for his legacy. If he had acted much sooner to the pandemic, many more people could have lived.

If Donald Trump had left well enough alone regarding the election and accepted his defeat gracefully during the 2020 election, you know by actually conceding to Biden, his legacy would have remained fully intact. Instead, Donald Trump took a different, highly questionable and very unethical approach to leaving office (or rather, to prevent his leaving office). Trump attempted to perpetrate many dubious (and probably very illegal) schemes in this process which ultimately fomented into a violent Insurrection on Capitol Hill by his supporters, all in the goal of attempting to halt the counting of the Electoral College votes with the sole intent to interfere with the Election and halt the peaceful transition of power.

Though, Donald Trump (and his cabal) claimed those violent rioters weren’t his supporters at all, instead suggesting they were actually Democrats and/or ANTIFA, even though this idea makes zero sense at all. Why would Democrats show up to a Trump rally at the Ellipse and support Trump? Then see those same Democrats march to the Capitol Hill buildings only to rip apart the buildings and violently attack police officers? It wasn’t a Democrat rally. It was a Republican led rally. Why would Democrats attend a Republican rally in those numbers? No, those people were definitely Donald Trump supporters.

Worse, for 4 hours and a handful of minutes, Donald Trump allowed the rioting to continue unabated instead of calling an end to it as President and sending in troops to stop it. The President should ALWAYS call for law and order, but instead this President stayed entirely silent, aiding and abetting the rioters silently.

Donald Trump’s historic legacy will be forever overshadowed and tainted by Trump’s incredibly dubious and stupid choice to foment a violent insurrection, followed by his over 4 hours of (in)action on January 6th, 2020… fully and completely eclipsing any good that may have been accomplished during his previous years as President. No one will care ultimately what he did in his early years, but everyone will remember that a President of the United States attempted to tear up the Constitution solely for personal gain.

Sychopant Supporters

Donald Trump’s sycophants, however, act like parrots. These delusional people simply repeat everything Donald Trump says almost verbatim, as if he’s somehow the voice of reason and/or the voice of truth. If anything, this article should illustrate exactly how misguided Donald Trump’s sycophants are and how much Donald Trump lacks the ability to tell the truth. Truth is just not something Donald Trump does.

The Washington Post estimates that of Donald Trump’s 4 years in office, he perpetuated well over 30,000 false or misleading claims. That’s not insignificant. Unfortunately, too many of his sycophants are blind to his lack of morals and ethics. Anyone willing to stand around for 4 hours while cops are beaten within inches of their lives is not someone you should endorse as “The Best President EVER” as you’re obviously delusional. Only someone delusional can look beyond the criminal, the unethical and then condone downright evil behavior only to claim they see someone who they believe to be “Good”. Good? That’s a laugh. Wolf in sheep’s clothing is more like it.

Donald Trump is not a good person. He’s not even an ethical person. There are things that Donald Trump most definitely is, though. He’s a manipulative person. He’s a sociopath. He’s a classic narcissist. He’s a philanderer. He’s bigoted. He’s misogynistic. He’s may even be somewhat delusional himself. However, there are almost no redeeming qualities about Donald J. Trump. How can you look in the mirror and state with a straight face that this man, a man who is willing to allow people to be injured and killed during a 4 hour period when he could have stopped it, a man who sat around allowing hundreds of thousands to die of COVID when he could have helped, is someone to look up to? No. There is simply no excuse here.

I don’t personally hate Donald Trump. I pity him. He’s a man who is caught up in his own delusional world and simply cannot break free. He is out for himself and what others can give him. This is why he relies on delusional people to continue to hand over their money to him. Donald Trump likely needs some major psychiatric counseling and therapy along with possibly some medication. He doesn’t need to be running the United States, however. This man should have, in fact, been barred from ever holding office ever again as he is simply not fit to hold it.

Those sycophants who parrot Donald’s every word AND who also hold governmental office must likewise be shown the door. Anyone who is that much of a blind follower of someone else cannot be working towards the benefit of their own constituents. If Donald Trump is more important then a congress person’s own constituents, voting them out and replacing them with someone who can think for themselves is the only answer. The current Republican party is blinded by a man who is ultimately a huge problem, not just for the Republicans, but for the entire world.

Let’s hope that Jack Smith, special counsel brought in by the DOJ, can bring this man to justice for the pain, suffering and, yes, death he has inflicted on far too many. If Donald J. Trump is elected again as President, his delusions won’t stop with an Insurrection. America as we know it will end… and along with it your freedoms, your home, your families, your beliefs and possibly even your very lives. Donald Trump is not the answer to America’s problems. America’s last gasp will be at the hands of Donald Trump. Donald J. Trump will end America. There will be nothing at all great about that, but then there won’t be many left to worry about it either.

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Should TikTok be banned in the US?

Posted in botch, business, government, legislation by commorancy on March 26, 2023

smart phone displaying tiktok profile

Clearly, TikTok’s executives would have you believe that there is no risk when using TikTok. Is there a national security risk, though? Yes. Let’s explore.

Bytedance

TikTok is presently owned by Bytedance. Bytedance’s company headquarters are located at Room 10A Building 2 No. 48 Zhichun Road, Haidian District, Beijing China. We also need to understand that businesses operating in Beijing China operate under Chinese law (such that it is). What that means for TikTok is that in order for this company to operate within China, it must always abide by China’s rules and regulations including spurious Chinese government requirements and mandates both existing and instantaneously required by the government.

For example, if Xi Jinping decides that Bytedance must turn over all information it has acquired to the Chinese government, Bytedance must comply or face the possibility of China pulling its licenses to operate its business in mainland China.

On the one hand, you have the TikTok CEO Shou Chew claiming that TikTok’s user data is safe. On the other hand, you have China’s government which can instantly require (i.e., force) Bytedance (or any Chinese based company) to hand over its data or face the loss of operating a business in China. Because China is a communist government, whatever China wants, China gets. Meaning, TikTok can absolutely make no assurances that user data is truly safe while Bytedance remains under China’s overreaching communist government authority. The rule of law only applies in China when the Chinese government WANTS it to apply, a key takeaway here. Internationally, China’s government does whatever it wants under the guise of appearing to support the rule of law.

Oracle Cloud

TikTok’s CEO has assured congress that it could move its data to within the Oracle cloud environment. While moving TikTok’s data storage to a United States owned business might sound great on paper, in reality it means nothing. Data stored in the US can STILL be easily exported, backed up, copied and recovered to computer equipment which resides in China. In fact, it would be entirely surprising if TikTok didn’t keep live backup copies of all user data somewhere on Chinese servers.

In other words, the CEO’s statements about using data storage on US shores as a “protection scheme” rings hollow. It’s far too easy to create copies of data and put it anywhere you want. It’s also guaranteed that if the Chinese government were to mandate that Bytedance turn over all relevant data to the Chinese government, TikTok would be forced to comply with those orders or face China’s government retaliation. In this case, not only can Bytedance not protect user data, they would have to appear completely willing to hand it over to the government instantly. Why? Because of Bytedance’s allegiance to China and not the United States… and because if TikTok doesn’t, China will close them down.

Allegiance

This word denotes a whole lot of things all at once. However, the most important thing this word signifies is what happens if China requests something from Bytedance and they refuse? A US based company protects all data of its users under the laws of the United States. If there were a subpoena by law enforcement issued for that data, a US based company would either have to comply with the subpoena or file an objection to quash the subpoena under specific grounds. In China, such avenues of refusal don’t necessarily work.

Because the United States is, at least thus far, based on the rule of law, the government would be required to allow an objection to funnel through the court processes before requiring the company to turn over whatever data is required by that subpoena. Even then, it would only be required if the court upheld the subpoena instead of siding with the appeal.

On the flip side, because China is a communist operated government, businesses operate under the whims of the Chinese government, which is not always based on the rule of law. While China does put up appearances suggesting that rule of law exists, the realities within China don’t always match that “rule of law” narrative. Meaning, China’s rule of law facade is just that, a facade.

For this reason, Bytedance’s allegiance must remain with China and never with the United States. The only reason Bytedance can operate within the US borders is because the United States, at present, allows it. But, that may be changing…

Is My Data Safe with TikTok?

The short answer is, no. Why? Because Bytedance’s allegiance remains solely with China because that’s where its business is incorporated. Regardless of what the executives of Bytedance may claim, that Chinese allegiance means that if Xi Jingping requires Bytedance to turn over all user data to China’s government about TikTok users, Bytedance must comply… and with no questions asked.

It doesn’t work like this if Bytedance were a company owned and operated within the United States. Rule of law actually matters in the United States where in China it only appears to matter, but doesn’t actually matter when the Chinese government wants what it wants.

What’s Wrong with China Knowing About Me?

If you don’t live in China or plan to visit, it might not matter that much. However, if you were ever to visit China, what you post on TikTok might be considered a legal offense in China and could see you legally apprehended, detained and/or jailed.

In other words, if you intend to post on TikTok and you have said or done anything that China takes offense to, you could become wanted in China. That’s a fairly extreme outcome, but China takes offense easily to many things and it takes those offenses seriously… so why poke that bull if you don’t have to?

Worse, because China is all about the money, having critical data from your phone device could allow would-be Chinese hackers to infiltrate your device, steal your identity and steal your money.

Should I use TikTok? — Should I allow my kids to use TikTok?

If you value your family’s privacy, no. YouTube and Facebook both offer similar enough video sharing features to more than make up for TikTok’s functionality. Both YouTube and Facebook are US based companies not under the Chinese government’s thumb. Why risk potentially losing your (or your child’s) personal data to China needlessly when you don’t have to?

This author definitely recommends avoiding the use of TikTok entirely. There’s really no reason to risk losing your family’s personal data to China over the use of a silly video sharing platform… a platform that already exists on YouTube and via other US operated companies.

Creators

The argument on not banning TikTok seems to stem mainly from both the TikTok executives (naturally) and from TikTok’s creators. Ignoring TikTok’s weak executive arguments for the moment, let’s focus on TikTok creators. While I agree that many creators may not have understood the ramifications of investing their creative efforts and skills into a platform of questionable origin, unfortunately they have. What that means is that a ban on TikTok in the US means that these creators must lose the audiences they have worked to gain. I get it, but that’s not reason enough.

For creators, this is a problem. However, it’s relatively simple for creators to ask their audience to move with them to a new platform. If a creator’s audience is truly committed to that creator’s content, most (if not all) of that audience should will be willing to move to any other platform that that creator may choose to use. A simple video which requests fans to sign up for and move to a new platform shouldn’t be a big deal.

If you’re a TikTok creator considering that you may lose your ability to create on the TikTok platform, you should definitely consider a movement plan to another platform. Whether that be YouTube, Instagram, Snapchat or any other short video sharing platform, moving away from TikTok is the key. You shouldn’t remain complacent and simply assume a ban won’t happen. You should take action now and, yes, complain if you like, but you should also prepare to move your fans and content to another platform. Don’t wait, take action now!

Creator arguments about engagement or loss of revenue or any other such arguments are simply not strong enough arguments to sway regulators away from the above China data sharing problem. There are too many other platforms owned and operated by US companies for such creator arguments to hold any weight at all. Simply, they don’t. This is why creators need to be proactive and take steps to plan to move both your fanbase and content to another platform now. Don’t sit on your hands and think it won’t happen. Plan ahead.

TikTok Audience versus TikTok CEO

While creators make up a relatively small portion of TikTok users, they are the ones responsible for bringing in the viewers. Still, having an audience is not an argument to keep TikTok from being banned. It’s not whether TikTok offers a valuable video sharing service, it’s that a Chinese based company manages TikTok’s data and always remains at the whims of China.

The CEO has stated that TikTok is beholden to no country, but that’s simply not a true statement. That statement cannot possibly be true. Every company must go into business under some country. Every country has laws and requirements for businesses to remain in business within that country. Bytedance incorporated its business within China. That means that Bytedance is beholden to China’s laws and regulations, no matter how, when or why they might appear. Because China’s government only appears to abide by its written laws and regulations, it only does so when it is convenient to the Chinese government. When it’s not convenient, new laws instantly come into being to cover whatever “thing” China is trying to make happen.

Instant laws don’t occur in the United States. It takes time, effort and lots of congressional or state legislator bickering and months of wrangling before a new law can come to exist. Most new laws require ballot measures to be voted on by the population, something that China doesn’t offer to its citizens.

What this all means is that TikTok’s CEO can say whatever he wants, but the realities of the way China operates remains. If Mr. Chew is so willing to lie about Bytedance’s allegiance to China, what else is Mr. Chew lying about? Lying to congressional members really doesn’t say great things about Bytedance or TikTok.

Should TikTok be banned in the United States?

We’ve come full circle from the beginning of this article. After all the above arguments are considered, I’d say that it is most definitely worth banning TikTok (and any other Chinese based apps) from the app stores. This situation shouldn’t be limited to TikTok. TikTok is simply so visible because it’s now used by more people than, in some cases, YouTube. The shear audience sizes alone for some TikTok creators means ever more and more people are signing up to use the service. Many of these new users are children (aged 17 and younger).

Children are unable to comprehend what sharing of personal data to China really means. They just see silly videos, but have no idea what information TikTok may be collecting while these children use TikTok.

Additionally, because Bytedance is a Chinese operated company, it doesn’t have to abide by federal regulations like COPPA. TikTok might choose to voluntarily comply (or simply put up a facade of doing so) as a measure of apparent goodwill. However internally, it may not at all comply with COPPA because it doesn’t have to. Because the TikTok company exists and operates outside of the US’s borders, United States federal laws don’t apply and cannot be enforced upon TikTok. This aspect right here is the single biggest elephant in the room and the single biggest reason why TikTok should be banned.

Without the federal regulations to help protect US citizens from nefarious or malicious use of data collected, Bytedance can literally do almost anything to non-Chinese citizens without any legal ramifications by the United States. Even if the United States were to try and bring suit, China wouldn’t allow it. This situation alone is why TikTok (and other Chinese operated services) should not be allowed to operate within the United States. TikTok is literally one Chinese company among many taking advantage of its Chinese locale to avoid being held accountable to United States laws.

The United States has every right to protect its citizens from unlawful interference by other countries. TikTok is one among many companies where this reality now exists, not just companies located in China. The United States legislators need to take a step back and really think long and hard about (the lack of) legislation around companies operating in countries which are mostly unfriendly to the United States.

China only tolerates the United States at this point because of the buying power the United States offers. Other than buying power, that’s where China’s civility with the US ends. China (and a Chinese operated company) doesn’t care how many people in the United States die, get maimed or get injured as a result of products made in China. The same can be said of services like TikTok. Anyone who legitimately believes that the TikTok CEO legitimately cares about United States citizens, other than for their wallets and the almighty dollar, is clearly deluded.

Yes, TikTok should be banned, along with every other app-based service operated out of unfriendly territories around the globe.

First Amendment?

Some have claimed that the First Amendment will be violated by banning TikTok. Let’s definitively state here and now that there is no First Amendment problem at play. Because TikTok is a Chinese company wholly operating out of China, Constitutional laws don’t apply to TikTok. The executives who operate TikTok aren’t United States citizens.

Even though there are United States users using the service as creators and viewers, the service itself is not bound by the United States Constitution. In effect, by you as a user choosing to invest your time and effort into putting your videos onto a wholly owned Chinese entity, you’ve effectively forfeited your right to First Amendment protections.

While some First Amendment advocates might disagree with the above stance, one thing is certain, the United States Constitution does not apply to non-US citizens… which would include any and all executives and staff who were hired and operate out of Bejing China. While it is possible that Bytedance has hired some United States citizens to help operate its service globally, that doesn’t wholly, suddenly or automatically then make Bytedance as a company bound by the United States Constitution.

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Fallout 76: Are Re-Rollers Gambling?

Posted in botch, video game, video game design, business by commorancy on March 16, 2023

Re-Roller

As of Season 12, entitled Rip Daring and the Cryptid Hunt, Bethesda might has well have entitled Fallout 76’s newest season, Welcome to Gambling. Let’s explore.

Challenge System

When Fallout 76 released in 2018, Bethesda included a “Challenge” system in the game. This challenge system allowed (and still allows in limited ways) players to obtain Atomic Shop currency called “Atom” in exchange for performing relatively basic challenges in the game world.

This Atom currency allows players to “buy” in-game items, such as CAMP add-ons, character clothing, hairstyles and face paint. The selection of the items in the Atomic Shop, at the time, was relatively limited in the early days, but has since expanded into consumables, Fallout 1st items, weapon and armor paints and even weapons.

Almost every video game released today offers a store with add-on items for players to purchase to enhance their gaming experience. The “Atom” currency has always been and remains the only currency in the game that can be purchased with real cash money in the form of USD (or other currencies around the world). For the purposes of this article, all dollar amounts shown are in USD.

For example, if you own a PlayStation, you can visit Sony’s PlayStation store and purchase Atom bundles, such as 500 Atom for $4.99 (or basically $5). The exchange rate is 100 Atoms to every $1 spent. An item in the Atomic Shop could then be said to cost $7 if it costs 700 Atoms. A small discount is applied the more Atom you buy.

If you pay $20, you’ll receive 2,400 Atoms. Bethesda’s marketing states there’s a bonus of 400 Atoms. In reality, this is simply considered a slight markdown on costs. Instead of costing $1 per 100 Atom, this changes the ratio to $1 per 120 Atom or discounted to 83¢ per 100 Atom. If you’re willing to spend $40, you’ll receive 5,000 Atoms. That further reduces the cost to $1 for every 125 Atom or 80¢ for every 100 Atom (a 20¢ discount or 20% discount for each 100 Atoms bought over the $5 purchase in the store).

That means that if you buy $5 worth of Atoms, a 1500 Atom item in the Atomic Shop store costs you $15.00. If you pay for $40 in Atoms, that same 1500 Atom item now costs you $12. That’s not a tremendous discount overall, but you will have saved $3 by buying $40 in Atom over buying three separate $5 Atom items (making $15 or 1500 Atom) from the PlayStation store. This conversion rate is only important if you’re wanting to equate how much something actually costs you in the Atomic Shop.

Fallout 1st

With the introduction of Fallout 1st, this monthly subscription service muddies the Atom waters just a little. By subscribing to this service, you’ll receive not only access to all of Fallout 1st’s features, including access to private worlds, access to custom worlds, access to the ammo and scrap boxes and a bunch of 1st exclusive Atomic Shop inclusions, you’ll also receive 1,650 Atoms each month. The cost for Fallout 1st is $12.99/mo straight up or $8.25/mo if you pay for the $99 to buy 1 year / 12 months up front.

Depending on how you choose to buy Fallout 1st, the value of the monthly allotment of Atoms changes. Buying Fallout 1st at the 1 year price is obviously the cheapest option offering up a nearly 50% discount off of those 1,650 Atoms (ignoring all of the rest of Fallout 1st’s features). 1,650 Atoms would normally cost close to $16.50 to purchase. Of course, the closest Atom bundle on the PS store is the 1,100 Atom bundle which costs $10. You’d have to jump to the 2,400 Atom bundle at $20 to get enough to cover 1,650 Atoms. The best Atom cost bundle is the 1 year subscription to Fallout 1st which discounts the cost of Atoms to 50¢ per 100 or effectively half price. That means that that same 1500 Atom item in the Atomic shop would cost you $7.50… assuming all of your Atoms came solely from being a Fallout 1st member.

Buying Fallout 1st monthly at $13 is still a discount on Atom, but at a rate of (rounded up) 127 Atom per $1 spent, just slightly better than buying the 5,000 Atom bundle shown above.

Challenges and Score

When the first Scoreboard season arrived in 2020, Bethesda changed what the daily and weekly challenges gave as rewards. Prior to the introduction of the Scoreboard seasons, all challenges awarded Atom. A player can spend these Atoms in any way chosen. Atom was originally awarded from both daily and weekly challenges as well as all of the other environmental challenges in the game.

With the introduction of the first Season and the Scoreboard, daily and weekly challenges changed to providing S.C.O.R.E. (another insipid Bethesda acronym). For the purposes of this article, this author will use the word ‘score’ for simplicity. Score is simply yet another, but separate form of Experience Points (XP). The score moves a blue progress bar across the Scoreboard. Once the progress bar reaches the end, the Scoreboard advances by one space. Each Scoreboard has 100 board spaces. Each space requires a progressive amount more score to complete. The first space might require 1000 score to complete. The last space might require 3500 score to complete. Every space in between requires more than 1000 score and less than 3500 score to advance to the next space. Once the game board has completed, additional board spaces appear so that awards can still be accrued by performing daily and weekly challenges.

For the first few seasons, once you reached the Scoreboard’s end, the board was over. Challenges did nothing and were worthless. It wasn’t until a few seasons later that Bethesda realized the problem and added more board spaces after the 100th board space, the final space which awards the “big prize” (such that it is).

What exactly is a Challenge?

While there are many challenges available in the game, the ones that matter most to today’s players are those that produce score. These are the only ones that advance board spaces on the Scoreboard. All other remaining challenges still provide Atom, but in small and diminishing quantities. The only renewing challenges are the daily and weekly challenges. The environmental challenges are one-off challenges that, for the most part, do not renew. These environmental challenges are one-and-done… with the exception of pick-lock and hack-terminal challenges that have a progression system that eventually ends, but which provide a small amount of Atom so long as they remain uncompleted.

The daily and weekly score challenges help “move the needle” through the Scoreboard. Each game board space unlocks some kind of Atomic Shop item including the possibility of a space awarding Atom itself. The board spaces are not random chance. They are hard set by Bethesda and the “prize” can be easily seen by hovering over the board space.

When Fallout 76 was introduced in 2018 (and until 2020), daily and weekly challenges awarded exclusively Atom alone. The daily challenge board might, in total, award anywhere from 100 to 300 Atoms (maybe more) depending on that day’s included challenges. That meant you could gain at least between 100-300 Atoms per day simply by doing the daily challenges. In a week, that could accrue to 1,000 or more Atoms just by doing daily challenges. The weekly challenges might accrue up to 1,000 to 2,000 Atoms (or more) depending on the included challenges. That meant that between the daily and weekly challenges you could see anywhere between 1,200 and 2000 Atom accrued per week. The problem for Bethesda was that all this freely available Atom from the daily and weekly challenges meant that players didn’t need to buy Atom frequently or sometimes at all. Bethesda wanted more income.

When the Scoreboard was introduced, the amount of Atom awarded by challenges was dramatically reduced to only those Scoreboard spaces which, all except one, offer a measly 150 Atom per space and only a handful of these spaces now exist on the board. In total, a single season Scoreboard typically awards 2,000 Atoms instead of up to 2,000 Atoms we were formerly getting per week from completing both the daily and weekly challenges. With the Scoreboard, it now takes many, many weeks of challenges to unlock the total Atom on the Scoreboard. Less Atom given out means more Atom sold with real cash money.

In other words, the amount of Atom awarded by the Scoreboard has been drastically reduced… forcing players to actually pay real money for Atom to buy larger Atomic Shop items. Bethesda enforces this purchase behavior by putting shop bundles into the Atomic shop for 16 days or 3 days or similar limited time offers which see the item disappear from the store after the timer ticks down. It’s a ruse that tries to force gamers into buying Atom to avoid “losing out”.

The challenges themselves include all manner of fetch quests. Some are long tailed and some can be completed in just a few minutes. Many are convoluted and may require things that a low level player might not have or might not yet have access to. Not all challenges can be completed by every player, depending on where that player is in completing the game’s main quest lines.

Challenge Examples

Challenges come in all shapes and forms. Some require completion of the challenge once, but many require completion of the challenge multiple times. For example, “Scrap Junk to produce Black Titanium (0/10)”. The 0/10 means that the player must scrap junk 10 times to produce Black Titanium to complete the challenge.

Bethesda plays games with these counters, too. The “Collect Pieces of Wood (0/200)” is a challenge that Bethesda has modified from its original to make it more difficult. When you collect wood, you might actually collect 4, 8 or even up to 20 pieces of wood as random chance. Yet, Bethesda only counts the collection itself toward the counter, not the number of the pieces of wood collected… as a way to cheat the player out of getting the task done sooner. Yet, “Craft ammo on a Crafting Bench (0/50)” still counts each individual piece of ammo crafted towards the challenge, even if you’ve only pressed the crafting button once. It’s this inconsistency and disparity between the challenges that not only make this system confusing, it makes the challenges a pain in the ass not knowing which rules apply. These counters are also what put long tails on challenges and require them to take a whole lot longer to complete than they should.

Some challenges are based solely on the completion of other challenges, like the Gold Star Daily Challenge. The Gold Star challenge isn’t actually a challenge, it’s a counter. It counts a specific set of challenges that have been completed. Once all of the Daily Challenges have been fully completed, the Gold Star Daily Challenge also completes. The Gold Star Daily challenge is an incidental challenge that completes only because other challenges have completed.

Challenges might include the following:

  • Kill a Yao Guai with a Syringer
  • Collect 100 Pieces of Wood
  • Scrap junk to produce Black Titanium
  • Kill a Deathclaw
  • Eat a Meat based Meal
  • Eat Pre-War Food
  • Scrap Pre-War Money
  • Complete a Daily Ops

Each of these challenges is usually sub-qualified with the number of times the player must perform that task. For daily challenges, if not once only, then it’s typically set to 3-5 times; relatively easy. For weekly challenges, it might be 20-100 times. With the introduction of the Re-Roller, the daily challenges have increased repeating the task from 3-5 to sometimes 20 or 30 or more, making these tasks take much, much longer. Yet, you still only have 24 hours to complete the challenge. There’s reason for this change, keep reading.

Atomic Shop Items

Atomic shop items are actually worthless. Why? Because you can’t craft them for others, sell them or even drop them. Any items purchase from the Atomic shop or, by extension, received from the Scoreboard are exclusively locked to that player. If you purchase (for Atom) an outfit from the Atomic Shop, it is exclusively for your use alone. If another player wants that same item, they must also spend Atom to buy it from the Atomic Shop. These player locked items make the item, in fact, worthless in the game world. They’re cosmetic, yes, but that’s the extent of the value of that item.

Some items can be used by other players, like Shelters, making these kinds of Atomic Shop items a bit more worthwhile than those like cosmetic armor or weapon skins. Shelters, for example, are probably one of the most useful items in the game. These in-game rooms offer the player a way to decorate and build in creative form, which can be shared by other players who visit that shelter. Shelters also afford a way to display items to other players that you have found and which you value. You can even display Atomic Shop items, but why bother? Only the rarest items found in the game world are those worth displaying.

What is a Re-Roller?

Here we arrive at the heart of this article and why you’re here reading. It’s important to understand the above system in place to understand this next most recent introduction by Bethesda, the Re-Roller (aka Re-Roll). Some challenges have been a problem to complete by some players, but only because the player might not be far enough along in the game to actually complete that challenge. For example, they might not have access to a specific location that a challenge requires. The player also might not be high enough level to use the required weapon to complete the challenge. There are many challenges like these that Bethesda includes in the challenge board.

Because of complaints over uncompletable challenges, Bethesda has now introduced in Season 12 (the current season as of this article), the concept of a Re-Roller. What is a Re-Roller? It simply allows you to “spin” for and hopefully 🤞 get a new and completely different challenge. And here’s where the gambling arises and where Re-Rollers intentionally fail.

Before diving into all of that, let’s step back in time.

EA and Loot Boxes

Several years back around 2019, EA introduced for-pay loot boxes into several of its games, but most notably FIFA. These for pay random chance loot boxes, once opened, provided the player with a common, rare or legendary item, which could be used in the game. In the case of FIFA, the game’s loot boxes provided trading cards in various rarities.

Many authorities jumped in claiming these loot boxes had become a form of gambling. These authorities are not wrong. They are a form of gambling. You spend real money and then the game spins and awards you with a “win” or “lose” situation. Because of typical house odds of offering up the worst rewards most frequently, it encourages players to do it again and again in hopes of getting “something better” or at least not a duplicate. Yes, duplicates are possible and extremely common.

As a result of the backlash over loot box gambling and other games of chance, EA and several other game developers have since stripped loot boxes from their games.

Enter Bethesda and Re-Rollers…

Re-Roller Gambling

Lumberjack SlotWhile Fallout 76 has included a relatively real appearing slot machine in the game for many months now, it doesn’t rely on real cash money to operate. The in-game slot machine uses “caps”, an easily obtained in-game currency. This currency has been in the game from the beginning. Today, caps are considered mostly worthless, other than for the purposes of finding player vendors who are selling relatively rare in-game items.

With this slot machine, there is effectively no way to lose. The cost to play is 10 caps. Spending 10 caps, you’ll always get something for your caps spent. For example, spinning this slot machine always awards +2 to Luck for a limited time, a very useful player perk for as long as it lasts. You can always renew this perk by spinning again. You get this perk no matter whether you get caps back or not. Most times, you’ll get back exactly the caps you spent to play, 10 caps. Sometimes you’ll get back 4 caps. Occasionally, you’ll get 20 caps or more. If you don’t win anything, the game still awards you a piece junk to scrap or sell… junk likely worth 5-10 caps at a vendor. In essence, you almost never lose any caps in this slot machine… and even then, the additional perk means you never lose. It is also impossible to spend real cash money to play this machine as caps cannot be purchased directly with USD.

Enter Re-Rollers

The name itself actually has connotations of spinning something, like a slot machine. Even the sound effects used when re-rolling are reminiscent of spinning a slot machine. How do Re-Rollers work?

Because some challenges may be uncompletable (for whatever reason), a Re-Roller allows the player to take a chance on a new replacement challenge in the hopes it will be better than what was there. In effect, the Re-Roller is tantamount to pulling the arm on a slot machine and waiting for the spinning to stop to see if you have “won”. If not, that encourages you to spin again. This encouragement is tantamount to and turns a Re-Roller into a form of gambling… triggering the same effects as any other game of gambling. While the game issues one free Re-Roller per day, additional Re-Rollers aren’t free, making this situation far, far worse.

Re-Rollers cost Atom to buy from the Atomic Shop. As has been established earlier, Atoms cost real USD. Thus, to buy Atom means paying real cash money to Bethesda for these Atoms. Thus, Re-Rollers cost the player real cash money to buy. This further means it’s possible to lose a large amount of real USD to gambling with these Re-Rollers. This is also the first time Bethesda has tied real cash money to an in-game random chance based gambling device in Fallout 76.

One could argue that Lunchboxes could be considered a form of gambling, but there’s really no gambling involved. You buy a lunchbox, you open it and you get a reward in game. There is no random chance involved. The only randomness is in the name of perk you get, not whether you’ll get one as each one is nearly equal to the others. More than this, you can buy Lunchboxes in the game world by earning in-game currency… something that can’t be done with Re-Rollers.

Re-Rollers can only be obtained by spending Atom in the atomic shop or by obtaining a very small number of them off of the Scoreboard (and even less off of the ever diminishing environmental challenges). Even then, the Scoreboard only offers 3 Re-Rollers from a single space with just a few spaces across the game board. Those 3 Re-Rollers are easily consumed in just a few minutes on ONE (1) Challenge. There is no other way to get Re-Rollers in Fallout 76 as of this writing.

Gambling Triggers and Addictions

The problem with random chance spin and win mechanisms is that they trigger the same exact gambling centers of the brain as any other form of gambling. Because real money is involved in obtaining Re-Rollers, this could cause real actual gambling problems for children targeted by this new Re-Roller mechanism. Unlike the slot machine above, which always wins you something, the Re-Roller has no guarantee you will get anything different from what you already have, which is perceived by the player as a loss. Yes, it IS entirely possible to get the same exact (or an even worse) challenge as a result of a Re-Roller. Sometimes it happens multiple times in a row.

Let’s consider that it costs 50 Atom to buy one Re-Roller. That means that an average player could spend as much as $1 for every 2 Re-Rollers purchased. Because a player might need use multiple Re-Rollers multiple times, it would be easy to spend $5 or $10 attempting to get new daily challenges… every single day. That money adds up in a week or a month or even a year.

As stated above, this unusual move is the first time Bethesda has tied real world fiat money into the purchase of a random chance game mechanic driven entirely by the need to gamble. While there’s no way to win cash money back out of this, using it always means loss of money AND its effect as a gambling device stands. Because the win is considered a “better” (subjective interpretation) challenge, the loss is real money spent on wasted / lost Re-Rollers. This loss of Re-Rollers has the real affect of triggering a gambling addiction.

As a result, the questionable inclusion of this game mechanic is easy to see children become addicted to this system so that they continue to Re-Roll without bounds, just to see what they get… all in an effort to make Bethesda more money! It’s not a simple matter that child wants to complete the challenges. It’s that the addiction causes the child to want to see “better” or “rarer” challenges. Addictive mechanics lead to addictive behaviors… and this Re-Roller feature has a real chance of being abused by someone caught up in gambling addictions. Worse, these games are targeted towards children and young adults who might not understand gambling addiction or the money problems which can result from them.

More than this, it’s surprising that Bethesda didn’t realize that these real world money tied Re-Rollers are actually a form of gambling and put the brakes on this feature before introduction.

Because Bethesda is now owned by Microsoft, that puts Microsoft on the hook for this gambling device. An enterprising lawyer may now see very deep pockets in Microsoft and choose to pursue a lawsuit over perpetrating gambling on minors. In fact, under the eyes of state laws, gambling targeted towards minors is illegal. Bethesda is playing with legal fire here.

Convoluted and Epic Challenges

One thing that has made this entire Re-Roller system far worse and even more addictive is the inclusion of even more complex and convoluted challenges. Most daily challenges included in past Seasons have required relatively simple quest objectives. Go kill a single creature. Fetch 5 purified water. Easy and relatively simple, but also useful items to player.

With this Season, Bethesda has abandoned these simplistic challenges for longer tailed, more complex and even more difficult challenges. Where it might have taken an hour to get through the daily challenge board, it might now take 3 hours because of these newer more complex and convoluted daily challenges.

Weekly challenges have always been long tailed. That means that they might take several days to complete. That’s the point in weekly challenges. Daily challenges have always given only 24 hours to complete these challenges before they reset for the next day. Moving the challenges from maybe 5-10 minutes per challenge to 15-20 minutes per challenge is an odd play, but not when you consider Re-Rollers.

A reasonably experienced player can instantly size up the amount of time a specific challenge might take. This re-enforces the need to Re-Roll long-tailed challenges in the hopes of “getting something better” …. thus, ensuring that players get addicted to this random chance Re-Roller system. Thus, the reason for inclusion of longer, obscure and more complex challenges ensure that players will buy into this gambling mechanism for a “chance” to get something better or faster or easier.

In reality, the challenges ahead of the one being Re-Rolled are equally as complex and equally convoluted, with the exception of a perhaps a tiny few which might be as easy or as useful as those given in prior seasons. A player ultimately has no idea what might pop up when a challenge is Re-Rolled. Thus, the illusion of “getting something better.”

However, it didn’t stop with complexity. Bethesda felt the need to include one more incentive to reinforce gambling behaviors: Epic Challenges. “Epic Challenges” offer higher Score and are, thus, rarer to see from a Re-Roller. Rarity is a concept that will cause players to want to gamble. Because Epic Challenges are considered a low chance “win”, players will be incentivized to consume Re-Rollers multiple times until they get an Epic challenge.

Therefore, this Epic Challenge system “rarity” encourages players to Re-Roll every challenge on the daily (and weekly) boards simply to get Epic Challenges. Doing so could cost the player $20, $50 or even $100 real cash money to achieve… being required to Re-Roll 6 challenges per day and up to 12-20 Weekly challenges. Expensive AND addictive.

Way Cheaper to Pay for Board Spaces

On the Scoreboard, Bethesda has included the ability to pay 150 Atom to advance one space. For example, if you’re at space 99 and you want to complete the board, you could simply pay 150 Atom and avoid the hassles of performing challenges to gain the required amount of score.

Let’s equate this with Re-Roller costs. The purchase of three (3) Re-Rollers costs 150 Atom, the same amount it costs to buy one board space. Consider that three Re-Rollers on daily challenges cannot provide you with any amount of score close to completing a board space by itself. The board space might complete if, for example, the score amount given for a challenge is 150 and that also happens to be the amount needed to advance to the next board space. That also meant you had completed many previous challenges to get the progress bar to the point of being almost completed.

To put this in perspective, for only 150 Atom, the gameboard will advance an entire board space (adding somewhere between 1000 and 3500 score) OR you can pay 150 Atom for three Re-Rollers in the hopes that you can replace one single daily challenge and receive maybe 100-200 score. In other words, paying for just three Re-Rollers at 50 * 3 = 150 Atom is between 10x-35x more expensive than simply paying that same 150 Atom to advance a full board space. Thus, there is zero value in paying for Re-Rollers when you can pay for board spaces. Bethesda understands this.

Gambling Targeted Towards Minors

There’s a reason why gambling establishments require people to be age 21 to play. First and foremost, it’s the law. More than this, children shouldn’t be gambling. Unfortunately, video games can’t age check before each use. There is no way to exclude a system like Re-Rollers from players under the age of 21. The only way to avoid such a situation is if such a gambling system is not included at all.

This is why so many game developers have since removed real cash money based random chance loot box systems from their games. It’s also questionable why Bethesda has now chosen to include one in Fallout 76. Bethesda has most definitely crossed a line here; a line that shouldn’t have been crossed.

Ultimately, this Re-Roller system is likely to be seen for what it is, a gambling system strongly encouraging children to gamble by the use of Bethesda’s “Epic” challenge strategy, strongly appealing to “rarity” and “miss out” child behaviors. Gambling systems should never be included in products used by or, more importantly, targeted towards minors… particularly gambling systems when tied to the use of real cash money.

Bethesda, if you’re reading, you might want to quickly retain legal counsel as this Re-Roller system is likely to blow up in your face once again. That, or you quickly need to consider its removal from Fallout 76.

Gambling Addictions / Get Help

If you’re a player who is susceptible to gambling addiction, you should not play nor fall prey to Bethesda’s gambling encouragement. Instead, please get help. It is strongly recommended to steer clear of all such gambling mechanisms included in video games; mechanisms which trigger gambling addictions and encourage you to spend real money on them.

If you’re a parent reading, you should limit your child’s play of Fallout 76. Better, stop their play altogether until Bethesda removes this gambling device and stops encouraging players to pay real cash money on random chance gambling devices.

No video game should ever make money off of the backs of children encouraged to ostensibly gamble with real money. Gambling should always remain in places like Las Vegas or Atlantic City, where people who physically travel there have made the conscious decision to gamble and are of legal age to do so.

Can this be corrected / Solutions?

[Updated Mar 18th, 2023] When this article began, this author wrestled with the idea of adding a solutions section and decided against it. The simplest solution seemed for Bethesda to remove the feature from the game entirely and be done with it. However, I’ve since decided to include this section, only because it may help out other developers considering adding “games of chance” to their game… particularly when those games of chance are tied to fiat currency and in games where children (aged 17 and below) already make up a very large portion of the player demographic.

When you’re building an adventure game like Fallout 76, where the primary objectives are to explore and experience combat situations, adding games of chance (like the Re-Roller) as ways of raising additional money is problematic and possibly illegal in some parts of the United States. Basically, a game developer should never raise money by targeting children with games of chance when tied to fiat currencies.

The big mistake Bethesda made here was to tie the purchase of a Re-Roller to fiat USD money. To rectify this situation, Bethesda would need to untie this entirely. Get rid of Re-Rollers purchased through the Atomic Shop and replace the purchase of Re-Rollers to vendors located in the game world using one of the many already established in-game currencies, such as Scrip, Gold Bullion, Stamps or Caps. These in-game currencies are earned, not purchased. For a gamer to obtain these currencies, it only requires time, not real cash money. In fact, there is no way to pay for these currencies with real cash money using any in-game mechanism by Bethesda. However, that doesn’t resolve the problem over the fact that Re-Rollers are a game of chance included in a game title targeted towards children.

Instead, Bethesda needs to reconsider the idea of swapping out one challenge for another entirely. For example, get rid of this “game of chance” mechanic entirely and replace it with a buyout option. Instead of being required to “roll and pray for something better”, the player can simply buy out the challenge by using in-game currency. Pay some amount of caps or scrip or stamps or bullion and the challenge is instantly completed. An in-replacement buyout option gets around the problem of gambling and games of chance entirely.

The other option is to simply include more challenges… more than are actually needed to complete the game board. If the player misses a few challenges, no big deal. Though, the buyout option is the best solution as it gives the player the option to complete all challenges if they so choose simply by playing longer and earning more in-game currency.

Should a buyout option be tied to actual fiat currency? Perhaps. One thing is certain with the buy-out option, it cannot in any way be considered a potentially illegal form of gambling targeted at children. Though, bilking children out of money for the purposes of such “buy-out” mechanics is still considered dubious at best. Including games of chance in similar fashion to a slot machine, on the other hand, is problematic all around when an excessively large demographic of players consists of ages 17 and below. The only way such games of chance mechanics should be included is if the developer has a way to absolutely 100% exclude 17 and younger from participating in these mechanics.

To date, I don’t know of any game developer that has found a way to do this reliably… or at all! The best way to handle the inclusion of “adult” gambling situations is simply not to include them. If you want to operate games of chance via fiat money gambling situations, then spend the money to construct and open a real casino in Las Vegas.

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Did Elizabeth Holmes get the correct sentence?

Posted in botch, business, california, criminal, legal by commorancy on March 5, 2023

lab-testing-equipmentAs we should already know, now-disgraced and convicted CEO Elizabeth Holmes operated Theranos. Theranos was to offer the world a fantastical new way of testing people’s health concerns for all manner of blood diagnostics all with the tiniest drop of blood. It’s fantastical because Elizabeth Holmes’s Theranos was never able to make this testing technology actually work (the entire basis for the fraud). Ms. Holmes has now been convicted of wire fraud and defrauding investors, a federal crime. More than this, Ms. Holmes has now been sentenced to serve 11 years in a federal prison.

NBC News Opinion

One NBC opinion piece, written by a former federal prosecutor and current attorney, Andrey Spektor, contends that Elizabeth Holmes’s 11 year sentence is too harsh. This author does not agree. Why? Because of the nature of and, more importantly, the real dangers posed by the device she failed to create.

Andrey’s contention is:

But that calculation was the least important component of determining Holmes’ sentence because the judge ultimately disagreed with the probation estimate and, anyway, no rational judge would have sentenced her to anything approaching life in prison. Among other things, she is a first-time, nonviolent offender whose crime did not lead to anyone’s death.

I contend that this highlighted statement is, at best, inaccurate and is, at its worst, false. There may actually have been illness and death as a result of Theranos’s deception, when the Theranos “Edison miniLab” machine (pictured)theranos_minilab-crop, did not work as purported and likely impacted medical treatments needed (or weren’t needed, as the case may be) for medical patients. For Andrey to contend that no one died (or by extension, weren’t injured or hurt), that’s incredibly wrong thinking.

Ms. Holmes’s deception impacted many people’s health; health which relied on accurate testing results from Theranos’s Edison miniLab machine. Without accurate testing results, the wrong medications could have been prescribed, the wrong treatment plans could be implemented, up to and including not prescribing medications which could save people’s lives… or indeed the opposite may have occurred; the wrong prescription may have been prescribed causing injury or potentially death. Claiming her fraudulent testing equipment couldn’t cause harm is fallacious and disingenuous. Worse, according to the whistleblowers, Ms. Holmes knew that her miniLab testing equipment didn’t work!

Dangers to Society

The fact that the Edison’s machine’s deception was “caught early” is of no consolation to those who received inaccurate test results from Theranos’s intentional equipment deception. In other words, you can’t just play “god” with people’s lives and health and expect to get away with it.

To claim that her defrauding and misleading and intentional deception about her alleged testing methodology, which clearly did not work properly (or at all), didn’t impact people’s health and lives is insulting to those who could have lost their lives to Theranos’s medical fraud. Even still, some still could lose their lives early because of Theranos.

That the fraud was caught early because of two conscientious whistleblowers within Theranos employee ranks is more a testament to those two individual’s forthright and upstanding conscience than of Elizabeth Holmes coming clean about the dangers the Theranos Edison ultimately posed to society. Elizabeth Holmes would likely have continued to play this dangerous game if those two whistleblowers hadn’t come forward. It wasn’t Elizabeth Holmes who “came clean” on the wrongness of her equipment. It was those two Theranos whistleblowers who put their careers in jeopardy to save the lives of others.

11 Year Sentence

For all of these reasons above, I vehemently disagree with Andrey Spektor’s opinion. Elizabeth Holmes’s 11 year sentence is not at all inappropriate or too long. In fact, I’d say her sentence was downright lenient considering the danger she, Theranos and her fraudulent testing equipment posed to society as a whole. If her equipment’s fraud had not been found early, we could have gone perhaps a year or two or longer without knowing how many people might have been misdiagnosed, given the wrong medical treatments or, indeed, given no treatments at all for preventable, but fatal illnesses if left untreated. In short, Elizabeth Holmes (and her fake testing equipment) was (and is) a danger to society.

I contend that 11 years is way too lenient for that level of danger and risk that she and Theranos posed to the world. She doesn’t deserve leniency for having committed this level of medical malfeasance against the public at large. While one can try and argue that the trial wasn’t about her medical malfeasance specifically, the fraud fully stemmed from that malfeasance. Thus, any malfeasance must be considered as part of the sentencing. It can’t be “distanced” or “separated” as though it didn’t exist. That malfeasance was the entire reason Elizabeth Holmes’s machine was found to have caused the defrauding of investors. Eye on the ball, people.

While a trial for the affected patients was not allowed to move forward, that doesn’t preclude the absolute sheer negligence and willful malfeasance Holmes performed against an unsuspecting public. Elizabeth Holmes knew her machine didn’t work. Yet she STILL went ahead with placing it into Walgreens knowing its problems. That’s not innocent happenstance; that’s willful malfeasance and, at worst, malevolence. Conscientious people don’t put other people in harm’s way intentionally. Elizabeth Holmes put people in harm’s way. One might want to call that blind ambition. Call it what you will. Blind ambition can still result in someone doing the wrong things for the wrong reasons, even knowing that the outcome might cause harm to others. That can’t be dismissed with an 18 month sentence (as Ms. Holmes has requested), a mere slap on the wrist.

No, the 11 year sentence by federal sentencing Judge Edward Davilla was definitely of a sufficient length as to give her pause AND send her a solid message for what Theranos and she had done to the public… even if not specifically stated by judge Davilla; this judge knew the stakes.

Babies as Shields?

One thing Elizabeth Holmes appears to also be shrewd at is trying to get out of her 11 year sentence. She’s now attempting this by getting pregnant. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with starting a family… but on the heels of beginning an 11 year federal criminal sentence? I get that her biological clock is ticking, but it primarily says she’s using an infant as a shield. That’s not a good look and it fully supports the above malfeasance. She’s putting her baby in harm’s way to protect herself from going to prison, or at least so she hopes. It’s a crude and crass way to begin prison… and it leaves her kids in the lurch without a parent for 11 years.

She knew she had been convicted, yet she chose to get pregnant anyway? A judge should have held her in contempt of court over that. When Holmes’s first child was born, her trial had not yet begun. Thus, there was no way to know which way her trial might go. Her second child, however, is simply being used as a pawn against incarceration. That’s both a nasty and very vile reason to have a child. It doesn’t show compassion for the child, it shows self-preservation by Holmes. It’s an incredibly uncaring and self-centered tactic, especially for a baby that’s now caught in her manipulative crossfire. As I said, distasteful.

She’s now delivered her second child, but it’s almost certain she’s working hard to conceive a third as yet another shield. Enough’s enough here. If she pops up pregnant again, cite her for contempt of court, let her carry that child to term in prison and give birth to that child behind bars. The sentence was issued and it must be carried out. Having a baby shouldn’t become a “get out of jail free” card… not for her, not for anyone. Worse, babies should never be used as incarceration blockers.

Judges should make it perfectly clear to any convicted felon who decides to conceive a baby after conviction means possible contempt of court and that neither the pregnancy nor the birth will stop the incarceration from occurring. Playing these games with the court should always mean contempt of court and possible longer incarceration time.

Did Elizabeth Holmes get the correct sentence?

No, but not for the reasons Andrey Spektor proposed. In fact, Ms. Holmes got a far more lenient sentence than she should have been given considering the real medical dangers both she and her testing machine imposed on society. Ms. Holmes should count herself lucky at receiving only 11 years. Let’s hope that when she gets out of prison, she doesn’t try to start yet another dangerous “medical testing” company.

As for those 11 years Ms. Holmes faces? This amount of incarceration also sends a clear message to other would-be CEOs not to play with people’s lives using untested medical technologies in the goal of gaining personal fame, wealth or for any other reason.

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Fallout 76 Rant: The Impact of Legacy Removal

Posted in botch, business, video game, video game design by commorancy on January 25, 2023

Fallout 76_20230117225518

While Pipe might be life in Fallout 76, the Legacy removal might actually mean the death of Fallout 76. While some gamers are praising the removal of Legacy weapons from Fallout 76, those who are impacted by this change might actually have the power to sink the Fallout series, and possibly even Bethesda itself. Let’s explore.

Misguided Maneuver

It’s clear that Bethesda is horribly misguided internally. On the one hand, I get Bethesda’s rationale behind the removal of these “illegal” mods from Legacy weapons. On the other hand, Bethesda’s rationale is entirely misguided and fails to take into account the real damage that has now been inflicted on the game and, ultimately, the game’s player base. The real question now is not whether the game is better, but whether Fallout 76, ironically a survival game, can survive this change.

One thing is certain, some players are reeling from this change and rightly so. Bethesda itself also doesn’t seem to fundamentally understand the player base which has been born out of these legacy weapons having been included in the game for literal years.

What is a Legacy Weapon? A Legacy weapon is any weapon that was formerly in the game and could be obtained through loot drops, but was removed from the loot drop list by Bethesda Fallout 76 devs in the game’s early years (loot drops removed around 2018-2019). This meant there was no way to obtain these weapons after the loot drops stopped… until Legendary Modules were introduced when Nuclear Winter began in 2019. Once these legendary modules were added, for a short time it may have been possible to craft such weapons on a crafting bench until the crafting of these weapons was also patched. Since then, these weapons have been unavailable.

Which Weapons were Removed?

The “Legacy” weapons to which this article refers are any legendary energy or plasma weapon with an explosive attachment. These explosive attachments have now been deemed “illegal” by Bethesda even though they were perfectly legal when they originally dropped. Such weapons could be obtained earlier in the game’s life legitimately, but today are no longer obtainable and are now marked as “illegal” by Bethesda’s Fallout 76 team. Weapons which have now been removed include:

  • Explosive Gatling Plasma
  • Explosive Laser Pistol
  • Explosive Laser Rifle
  • Explosive Gatling Laser
  • Explosive Flamer
  • Explosive Gauss Rifle
  • Explosive Gauss Shotgun
  • Explosive Gauss Minigun
  • Explosive Gauss Pistol
  • Explosive Tesla Rifle

All of the above weapons have had their explosive attachment removed by the Fallout 76 devs, turning many 3 star Legendary weapons into 2 star weapons.

Note, I won’t even get into the severe bugs introduced as a result of the removal of these Legacy weapons… bugs which have heavily impacted many rogues in addition to the Legacy removals. It’s not pretty for Bethesda or Fallout 76 right now.

Righting Wrongs

Once Bethesda knew these weapons shouldn’t have been included in the game back in 2018-2019, a patch should have been swiftly crafted and implemented then to remove these “illegal” weapons. This would have saved Bethesda this headache today. Instead, Bethesda waited and let this situation fester for going on nearly 5 years now. Not only did it fester, it actually born a whole new type of gamer in Fallout 76… a type of gamer willing to spend real cash money to not only obtain and own these “illegal” weapons, but who were also willing to pay Bethesda for Fallout 1st and pay Bethesda for Atoms to buy the Atomic Shop’s literal valueless junk.

Yes, this new type of gamer is the one who is literally propping up Bethesda’s Fallout 76 game. These are the gamers who are paying Bethesda’s bills, keeping Bethesda’s lights on and ensuring their staff remain employed.

Removing these weapons is literally a situation of “biting the hand that feeds you!”

Fallout 76 Gamer Types

When Fallout 4 began and also when Fallout 76 began, the primary type of gamers that Bethesda had hoped for were those interested in playing the game firmly on their “golden path”. In programming, a “golden path” is the path that most users will take when using any piece of software. This path is the path the engineers design the game for users to find and use. I dub these types of users the “golden” users. The vast majority of software users fall into “golden” users. Video game software users take a different route.

Gamers are somewhat different for this “golden path” approach for a number of reasons. The primary reason gamers are different is that video games entice children to play. By the very nature of this product being a video game, children are naturally one of the video game industry’s primary demographics… regardless of the game’s rating.

Let’s define children. Children include ages 8-17, with the primary age of most children playing ranging from 12-14. Because children don’t have a lot of life experience, their minds aren’t constrained by “adult” thinking. Children play games in ways that suit their fancy, which means children do not always remain on the golden path. In fact, in most cases, children stray from the golden path frequently in video games. Children actively try to poke holes in, find problems with and generally do things that an adult gamer might never think to try.

Children aren’t the only players doing this, however. Many adults can maintain this childlike poke and prod thought process well into their 30s. This leads to the next type of gamer I dub the “rogue” gamer.

Rogues vs Golden

Rogue gamers don’t follow the golden path laid out by the developers. These gamers intentionally and actively seek to find bugs, exploit holes and obtain “rare” objects in a game, including weapons. Almost every “rogue” gamer seeks to one-up their fellow player by finding something that their friend doesn’t have, whether that be a way to build under the map, go out of bounds or obtain a weapon that few other players have.

Rogue players don’t play the game as intended and are unwilling to follow EULA rules. They’re so flippant in the way they play the game, they actually don’t really care if their account gets banned or if Sony shuts their PlayStation down by disabling their PSN account, for example. In the gaming world, Rogues don’t care about the rules or abiding by them. With that said, they do care about finding the latest rare thing to have in the game.

The thing is, many of these rogue gamers come from well-to-do, dare I say wealthy families. This means they are willing to pay and pay and pay. They will pay for Fallout 1st. They will pay for Atoms in the atomic shop. They will even pay other players real cash money on places like eBay to buy rare in-game items.

In short, many rogue gamers keep Bethesda’s (and by extension, Microsoft’s) bills paid and the lights on. That’s not to say that every rogue gamer is wealthy enough to do this, but many are. At this point, I think you might understand where this is heading.

One thing that rogues typically don’t care about is the game itself or even the game’s story. They’re not playing the game because it’s Fallout and they’re not playing it because it has interesting lore or interesting quest lines, they’re playing the game because it’s an MMO, because it has multiplayer, because it has combat and because they can find and exploit heavy guns that no one else has. Rogues will only follow down a quest line because it unlocks their character to have or use something unique or better than someone else, not because of interest in the RPG aspect or the story.

Golden players, on the other hand, play the game by the rules using weapons considered legal within the game. These are also players who typically respect the Fallout canon, who are genuinely interested in the story being told, who play by the rules, who choose to play using guns the game provides and who don’t stray outside of the bounds simply because they find a loophole. These are dedicated Fallout players who’ve likely played many previous Fallout games, if not all of them.

Mixing The Two

These player types are not hard walled into two groups. Some players remain mostly golden, but go occasionally rogue when they deem appropriate. For example, some of Bethesda’s rigid game rules go too far. Some players become rogue when it’s necessary to bypass some of these Bethesda rigid rules, simply to save time, to cut weight down or for other reasons that help them play the game better.

Bethesda doesn’t get its player base

One thing is certain, Bethesda does NOT fundamentally understand who’s actually playing Fallout 76 and who is actually paying their bills. It goes even deeper than this.

Because there was a whole separate black market for these high powered “illegal” weapons, Bethesda completely overlooked this aspect of its game. Instead of taking advantage of these payers and bilking them for money, they decided to remove the weapons from the game.

It’s clear, you can either benefit from these players by making real money off of them or you can alienate them… and alienation is exactly where we are now.

Black Tuesday

On Tuesday January 24th, 2023, rogue players had to say goodbye to their “illegal” weapons. Bethesda removed weapon modules from the game, which during the 2018-2019 years were perfectly legal to own and use. This change sends not only a mixed message to players, it sends an exceedingly bad message.

It says that Bethesda really doesn’t give one crap about a huge segment of its very player base who are paying its bills, keeping its staff employed and keeping the game from going under.

This change is likely to be the beginning of the end for Fallout 76. Why?

Perplexed

Rogues are as perplexed and mystified by this late change now as anyone. For years these weapons were in the game and remained so. However, it’s just now that Bethesda decides to rid the game of these weapons?

Because these rogue players comprise a substantial portion of the revenue given to Bethesda for Fallout 1st and other pay-for-play features, it’s surprising Bethesda was so willing to risk losing that revenue and possibly even the entire game over this silly change.

Rogue players must now make a choice. They can either stay and play a hobbled version of the game using no special weapons or they can go find a new game where they can, once again, feel special and own special weapons. This is the actual real danger to Fallout 76. Rogues are fickle players. They only stay and play where they can find their “specialness”. If they can’t find and remain special, then the game is done and they leave it.

That’s exactly the crossroads at which Bethesda now finds itself. The question is, are there enough newbie players to keep the lights on and the staff employed? The answer to this question comes in how Bethesda chooses to respond.

High Levels and Endgame

After playing any game, not only have you amassed levels for your character, you have unlocked perks and skills. The problem is, once the quests have ended, what do you do with these skills? That’s fundamentally the problem with most games. You spend your time playing through the quest lines leveling up your player only to find that when you reach the end, all of that leveling up and those perks were for nothing… as there’s no endgame content.

Many gamers find little to no endgame content to utilize that high level skill. That means, you reach the end and you go find a new game to play.

Fallout 76 is only different in its endgame because it offers Events (and Legacy weapons). After the quests are done and there’s no more quest lines to follow, the Events and Daily quests are what’s left. These are repetitive activities that offer a slight chance for rare loot rewards. It also offers the chance to try out a new overpowered weapon.

Leveling up in Fallout 76, unfortunately, is mostly worthless. Because guns cap out at level 45 or 50, that essentially means your player is capped out at level 45 or 50, regardless of the level number your player may actually achieve. The only benefit to leveling up is to max out the Legendary perk cards, an addition that gives higher level players a tiny bit of an incentive to stay with the game.

Once a player reaches level 650-700, that player can easily have maxed out the Legendary Perk cards.  Max leveling these Legendary Perk cards sees a tiny bit more damage out of weapons, if utilized correctly. So then, what’s left after this? Not much, other than going Rogue and trying to find unobtainable, but overpowered weapons which formerly existed in the game.

While these weapons were once in the game circa 2019, they have since stopped dropping as loot long, long ago. That means that new players can’t easily obtain these overpowered weapons unless they monetarily buy them from another player. Hence, a player economy is born.

Initially, caps were the answer to this economy. Unfortunately, caps became mostly pointless as a currency in the game when Bethesda moved to bullion, scrip and stamps offering up the newest, most rare items. This is when players moved to selling these highly prized and overpowered weapons for real cash money, as in USD. Internet forums and trading boards came to exist to list and sell these weapons for real money.

In one fell swoop, Bethesda shut all of this down… the trading, the sales, the weapons, all of it. Without these weapons in the game, there are no more sales of them. You can’t sell what’s no longer in the game.

It goes way deeper than that. Not only did it kill third party sales of in-game weapons, it is poised to see a massive number of high level players abandon Fallout 76 and cancel their Fallout 1st subscriptions. Why play a game when there’s nothing special left?

Endgame content is firmly limited to Events. Unfortunately, in retaliation for these high powered weapons being in the game, Bethesda ramped up these events to be likewise overpowered. Without these weapons in the game, the events are STILL way overpowered…. to the point where these events are likely to FAIL the vast majority of the time when using standard weapons. Bethesda retaliated against the players by removing the weapons, but failed to reduce the overpowered nature of the events back to a level where standard weapons can be successful. Right now, these “golden” level 45 and 50 level weapons are not enough against these highly overpowered event enemies.

It gets worse, as players dwindle from the game due to natural attrition and now because Legacies have been removed, new players will be hard pressed to find enough higher level players on a server to take on the Scorchbeast Queen, the Titan or even Earle. These events are now so overpowered because Bethesda souped them up against Legacies, it’s near impossible to win these events with non-Legacy weapons, especially if a server has maybe 10 players on it.

Bethesda is definitely at a cross roads.

Microsoft

Now that Microsoft owns Bethesda, Bethesda is most definitely playing with fire. In fact, Bethesda’s choices surrounding Fallout 76 have always been questionable. Legacy removal is probably one of THE most questionable changes Bethesda has ever made for Fallout 76, considering when the problem actually started. Why does Microsoft matter? We’ll come to that answer in a bit.

For now, Fallout 76 is on the cusp. We don’t yet know the fallout (ha) from Bethesda’s meddling with Legacies. The point is, we cannot know how the rogue players will respond or how much financial damage these players who abandon the game can literally do to Bethesda.

It’s clear, without these Legacy weapons in the game, rogues who were playing Fallout 76 solely because these weapons existed will evaporate… and along with that, so will the income from Fallout 1st and all other income that keeps Fallout 76 afloat. Are the rogues a big enough population to make a dent in Bethesda’s income stream? My personal guess is, yes… at least for the longevity of Fallout 76. Without the rogues, Fallout 76 may be hard pressed to remain a viable entity, let alone Fallout as a franchise.

Does Fallout keep Bethesda afloat? It most certainly isn’t the only game that Bethesda publishes. However, Fallout 76 is currently the only Fallout franchise title available. In short, probably not.

Obsidian, another developer, was purchased by Microsoft in 2018, the same year that Fallout 76 released. Obsidian contains the remnants of Black Isle Studios, the original studio who developed the Fallout franchise. Because Microsoft now owns both Bethesda and Obsidian, it’s possible that someone at Microsoft could easily mandate the transition of the Fallout IP and franchise from Bethesda back over to Obsidian to handle.

Bethesda is clearly out of their depths with Fallout and they clearly don’t understand the franchise. Worse, they don’t even understand multiplayer systems in relation to Fallout. This first multiplayer Fallout game is probably the worst implementation that could have possibly been imagined. Partly this is due to its design goals, but partly it’s due to the inept team who couldn’t actually build a workable product… and here we are today. Because the Fallout 76 team failed to build a workable product, they’re now forced to remove a feature from the game that shouldn’t have been in it in the first place. Yet, that feature remained for nearly 5 years, solidifying them as legitimate in the game.

What Bethesda has done is tantamount to yanking a baby bottle from a baby after that baby has already begun to drink. If you didn’t want to give the baby bottle to the baby, it’s simpler not to do it up front than yanking it away after you’ve already given it to the baby. Heartless.

Can Fallout 76 tank Bethesda?

At this point, maybe not. What the loss of Fallout 76 will do is sour future gamers towards Bethesda games.

“Once bitten, twice shy.”

Few will step up to the plate again knowing the disaster that befell Fallout 76, especially once it disappears. Believe me, Fallout 76 WILL end. The question isn’t if, it’s when. After this Legacy removal, I believe Fallout 76’s end days are here. It’s just a matter of time before the remaining high level players (many of whom are now rogues) walk away and find a new game.

Gamers are fickle and these kinds of stupid maneuvers are ripe for rage quitting. Some die hard gamers will remain and play, but only for a short time until they become frustrated with the crappy standard weapons and find a new game to play. At a minimum, I’d certainly expect to see a rash of Fallout 1st subscriptions cancelled in the next 30 days.

The answer is that, alone, Fallout 76 likely can’t tank Bethesda. However, Fallout 76’s demise can most certainly make a big enough dent that someone at Microsoft (Phil Spencer?) retaliates against Bethesda through layoffs (Buh Bye Todd Howard), closures and by handing over various game IP to better equipped and better managed studios.

It’s clear, the current developers are ill equipped to understand what Fallout 76 should be. Let’s understand why…

Rogues, Games and Marketing

Rogues, whether a game studio likes them or not, are a market force. These are players who have money and are willing to spend it. A game studio can either embrace this fact, or go bankrupt trying to eliminate these gamers from the game. As they say, “Get woke, Go Broke!”

Bethesda is firmly in this latter camp. I don’t know what impetus is driving Bethesda’s management team and devs to take this “woke” approach, but clearly it’s not about trying to make money. Clearly, rogues represent real money sales. If a single player is willing to pay $20 or $50 or $150 real cash money for a single over powered weapon in the game, then Bethesda clearly isn’t actually trying make money. Who leaves money on the table?

Leaving an untapped market on the table is not only stupid, it’s probably one of the stupidest things I’ve seen Bethesda (or in general, a game developer) do.

Pay for Play

As much as gamers harp on the pay for play scheme, it’s a real thing, it exists and it needs to exist. Yes, buying an in-game weapon for real cash money is considered pay for play. You can’t deny that. Whether pay for play is good or bad thing is entirely debatable. One thing is certain. Pay for play makes money… and that’s exactly why game developers are in business, to make money.

In fact, pay for play already exists in Fallout 76 with Fallout 1st and Scrap Kits and Repair Kits and the list goes on. Even foodstuffs like Perfect Bubblegum and Lunch Boxes are forms of pay for play. Selling overpowered rifles for real cash money is just the next logical step.

At this point, Fallout 76 is almost 5 years old. When a game is brand new, perhaps pay for play isn’t something that’s needed. However, 5 years later with 95% of players at endgame, then pay for play is perfectly fine and, dare I say, necessary. It extends the life of a game. Anything that extends the life of a game I consider a good thing. It allows new players to step in and know their time won’t be wasted because the game must close down due to lack of players. It allows rogues and endgame players a means of keeping the game interesting and keep them coming back for more play. Anything that keeps players playing is a good thing. That alone continues to make money for Bethesda. I’d say that’s win-win-win all around. Everyone wins.

High Level Players, Veterans and a New Map

One thing that Bethesda has failed to take into account, in among Fallout 76’s many failures, is the failure of planning for high level players reaching the endgame. In The Elder Scrolls Online, this game’s devs seemed to properly plan for endgame high level players. In fact, ESO devs went so far as to convert level 100+ players into then new “Veteran” levels. For example, for every 100 levels, you got 1 Veteran level. A level 300 player would convert into Veteran level 3. These new Veteran levels were denoted by a Veteran symbol next to the player’s new rank, just above their head. This distinguishes Veteran players from low level players of a similar number.

In addition to being converted into Veteran levels, this change also unlocked the game to be played from the beginning using a new harder Veteran challenge level. Eventually, the devs even opened up a new Veteran level territory that required teaming up with other Veterans to handle this new difficult area. This area was so challenging, in fact, there was simply no way to solo it. The hordes were so difficult, you were forced to go in with a team even as a high Veteran level. While the lower level territories remained trivially easy for a Veteran, the Veteran territories were intensely challenging. Even group dungeons were incredibly challenging.

Likening this to Fallout 76, there is no way to liken this. While Fallout 76 devs are busy introducing silly and bugged out territories like Nuka World and slapping high level players on the wrist by removing legacies, the ESO devs (at about this same time in ESO’s lifecycle) were treating high level players like valued players and giving them more challenges. Effectively, the Fallout 76 devs are treating high level players like a nuisance when they should be celebrating players who’ve made it to level 600 or 800 or 1200 or 2000. This celebration should include rewarding these players, not chastising them.

If a player has given up a year or two of their life to play Bethesda’s Fallout 76 game and reached level 1000 (and who continues to actively play it), that’s a celebratory moment. Bethesda devs should be celebrating long standing players who continue to play the game instead of slapping these players on the wrist and saying, “Bad”.

ESO celebrated high level players the right way. Fallout 76 devs treat high level players like nothing more than a mere annoyance.

Here you have one team at Bethesda who fully understands and embraces their entire player base. On the other hand, you have an inept team who hasn’t the faintest clue of who their player base even is. I shake my head at this incredible disparity within the same corporation. It simply makes no sense.

Inept Developers

You’d think that if anything, The Elder Scrolls Online would have taught the Fallout 76 team some valuable lessons. Unfortunately, you thought wrong. It seems that these two MMO system teams do not at all communicate their valuable lessons from one team to the other.

The reality, which has become incredibly apparent, is that the Fallout 76 development team is wholly and completely inept; not just from a development perspective, but from a money making perspective. They don’t seem to understand the value of keeping ALL of the players happy and, most importantly, paying.

A game studio makes money by keeping people playing the game WHILE spending money. You don’t make money when you chase away your paying players. It’s pretty simple. Removing legacies from the game is a seminal chase-away-players moment. It’s also quite clear that the Fallout 76 developers and even the management team don’t get the real danger here.

Instead of embracing the legacies and the whole real money economy that’s grown up around these weapons’ accidental existence, Bethesda turns its back on the players by removing the weapons from the game. Not only has this shut down that entire real world economic situation (which Bethesda could have tapped), players who wanted these items have no reason to stay, pay and play the game any longer.

This means some walk away from Fallout 76 immediately and others leave slowly over time as they lose interest, “because it’s boring”. Some players, specifically rogues, must make their own fun in a game. Legacies were the rogue’s way of making that fun and cutting the boredom. Without the legacies, there’s honestly no reason for these players to remain playing the game… let alone spend any more money on it.

Business Lessons

While I hadn’t intended this article to become a business lesson, it’s moving quickly in this direction. Let me take this section to discuss this aspect of business operations.

Every college student should be required to take at least one or two business classes. What I mean here is that it’s vitally important for students learning software development to understand how their work impacts the bottom line of the company. Not all software features are good for business. There is no more clear illustration of that here than the removal of the Legacy weapons from Fallout 76. Adding new features can help out users. Removing features can easily cause people to walk away from your product.

This is where business classes come into play. Business classes teach students to have the smarts enough to realize that, “Hey, this feature that I’m being tasked to implement has a high chance of losing 70% of our PAYING clients!” Businesses must empower all employees to speak up when they see problems like this.

While software architects come up with ideas, they may not be privy to exactly how many people might actually be using a given feature. Before implementation of any feature that impacts the userbase, someone needs to put on the brakes and say, “Let’s pull the numbers of how many people are actually using this feature before rolling it out!” Sanity must always prevail in any software business. You can’t simply roll out a feature without understanding exactly how it might impact your existing bottom line.

This is why business classes, and more importantly, business intelligence and reporting is important. Blindly making changes without understanding the business impact can easily tank a business. Case in point, Musk’s incredibly poor handling of Twitter. Now we have yet another poor business case, Bethesda’s shitty handling of Legacy removals in Fallout 76.

Too Late

This article is written after-the-fact. Unfortunately, removing these weapons is more or less a done deal. What I mean here is that knowing the way that Fallout 76’s code is written, there’s no way to undo this change. Meaning, it’s easier to stop a code rollout before it happens than it is to undo a change already made. In many cases, it’s actually impossible to undo code changes due to the nature of the way it was rolled out.

At this point, Bethesda is stuck with this change, for better or worse. At this point, unfortunately, we’re probably at the “or worse” point. As I said above, we’re nearly 5 years into this game’s lifecycle. Instead of Bethesda celebrating high level player achievements, these players are being chastised and chased off by removing weapons these players relied on.

The point in becoming a high level player is to take the benefits that go along with that high level, which includes high damage weapons. That’s an expected staple of any game that supports having high level players. If level 1000 players are reduced to using weapons at the same level as a level 50 player, what’s the point in playing Fallout 76? In fact, what’s the point in leveling up beyond level 50?

Not only does this Legacy removal impact high level players, it impacts low level players because they know they can’t get these weapons in the future. That means that players who might have hung around to level their character up to level 1000 for the chance of getting one of these weapons might now get to level 100, quit and go buy something else. That drastically reduces the income of Bethesda… and by extension Microsoft.

When the Fallout 76 team could have embraced these weapons and monetarily leveraged the external market by retooling them to be legitimate and finding legitimate ways to sell and use them, the Fallout 76 team’s lack of business intelligence and foresight prevailed.

It’s anyone’s guess if Fallout 76 can recover from this change. My guess is that this Legacy removal will be the last major thing the Fallout 76 team does before the plug gets pulled on Fallout 76 by Microsoft. Bethesda, prove me wrong.

Compensating Controls

This final thought is yet another failure of business intelligence on the part of Bethesda management regarding the legacy removals. One idea that many game developers employ to soften the blow of any negative change is introduce a compensating positive change. For example, when something gets removed from a player’s inventory because of a policy change, the developer will offer up some kind of freebie for all of those players who are impacted. This can include free currency, a free new weapon, a freebie in the game store or something similar. This freebie offsets that player’s item loss in compensation.

Unfortunately, with this Legacy removal, Bethesda offered players no form of any kind of compensation for the loss of their weapon. They still had their weapon, yes, but severely altered. Bethesda might as well have removed the weapon as the weapon that remained is pretty much worthless. It’s surprising that Bethesda has offered up no compensation at all, but here we are.

For all of the above reasons, the rogues are likely to abandon this game entirely… perhaps even the franchise itself… said as if rogues even care about Fallout as a franchise. That leaves the golden players left to carry the weight, but unfortunately there are likely not enough of these golden players willing to shell out for Fallout 1st in the numbers needed to keep the game afloat. Thus, this change is likely to be Fallout 76’s death knell.

Way to go, Todd! Phil, if you’re reading this, you probably need to have a sit down with Todd to figure out what the hell is going on with the Fallout 76 development team.

Update: 1/29/2023 — Positive Changes vs Balance

While I didn’t discuss this above, there was really no need to state the positive changes by removing legacy weapons. We all know that exactly what taking overpowered weapons from the game means. For those who need this spelled out, it means less powerful weapons now exist in the game. That means shooting more, making more ammo and grinding more to keep your guns working. It also means the need for finding more ways to buff your weapons using Magazines, Bobbleheads and other consumables. It also means reworking perk cards to max out the damage done with these weapons.

In short, it means spending more time reworking your character to find the highest damage build based around the game’s crappy level 45 and 50 weapons. Ultimately, it’s an exercise in futility.

Does the game have balance after legacies? No, it does not! Fallout 76 is actually quite unbalanced. It is entirely because Bethesda has now given enemies many questionable unbalanced buffs. Removing legacies from the game doesn’t in any way negate these problematic introductions around enemies. Let’s list these enemy problems…

  • Enemies are allowed to instantly and silently teleport right behind you and instantly damage or kill you. Not balanced.
  • Enemies are still given perfect aim with every single shot, where players are given VATs that misses more frequently than it manages to hit. Not balanced.
  • Enemies have perfect accuracy with every single shot and are given 100% anti-armor per shot while players must live with weapons that afford drastically reduced accuracy and are given zero anti-armor per shot unless using perk cards and/or Anti-Armor legendary weapons. Even then, anti-armor afforded to the player is never 100% even though enemies are given 100% anti-armor shots. Not balanced.
  • Enemies have majorly enhanced perception, which can instantly negate Sneak cards. For example, if one enemy “sees” you, the horde around them all instantly see you. It’s not enemy by enemy, but by the horde. Not balanced.
  • Daily Ops is worthless due to actual enhanced perception given to enemies. Players spend major amounts of time building their character’s method of combat. If the player has chosen a sneaky sniper build, for example, Daily Ops entirely negates that. This means Bethesda expects us to completely retool our build strictly around Daily Ops? Not balanced.
  • Daily Ops, once again, is worthless due to stealth fields given to all enemies. Stealth invisibility fields negate using VATs. If you’ve built your character around using VATS criticals, once again Bethesda has negated that. Not balanced.
  • HP bar above an enemy lies. If an enemy’s bar says level 50, yet it takes hundreds of shots to kill it, that’s not level 50. A level 50 enemy should take a similar number of shots to kill it no matter what type of enemy it is. Not balanced.
  • Weapons show a high level of accuracy in the UI, but do not provide that high level of accuracy when shooting. Not balanced.
  • Weapons show specific damage numbers, but never actually provide that level of damage when shooting. For example, an Instigating Fat Man purports around 1500 damage in sneak, but never actually shows more than about 100-200 damage when landing a direct hit while sneaking. Not balanced.

As you can see, the vast majority of Fallout 76 has no balance at all. Unless you consider enemy tactics and damage stacked against the player as balance, there is very little balance about the game. The legacies were, in fact, the only way to negate Bethesda’s entirely unbalanced game. In fact, the legacies gave balance back to a game against Bethesda’s unfair and unbalanced enemies.

Unfortunately, we’re now right back to a completely unbalanced and unfair game, where enemies can cheat against the player using tactics like teleportation where the player been given no such ability or defense.

Balance in Fallout 76? Hardly.

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One Cockpit Pilot for Commercial Jets?

Posted in airline, botch, business by commorancy on November 30, 2022

low angle photography of airplane

The airline industry has continued reeling ever since the start of the pandemic. I won’t get exactly into why that is, but let’s just said that the Airlines caused this problem for themselves. As a result, pilot shortages are now seemingly commonplace. Commercial airlines are now seeking ways to reduce their pilot shortage, but not in sane ways. One idea is that pilots should be reduced to one in the cockpit. Let’s explore why this is probably the single worst idea that could be floated.

Health Problems

Let’s jump right into this disastrous idea and understand why one pilot should never be considered for nor allowed on any commercial carrier flights.

The #1 combined reasons why this practice should not ever be allowed is health concerns and redundancy. Having two pilots in the cockpit allows the second pilot to take over should the first one become incapacitated or incapable of flying. Effectively, having two pilots offers a backup system, human redundancy. Human redundancy is the difference between a successful flight and a crashed flight.

Think about it. If a single pilot in a single pilot cockpit becomes ill, incapacitated or worse, who’s going to fly the plane? Are the airlines going to require one or more of the flight attendants to have extensive pilot training so they can assume the role as pilot under this circumstance? That would mean that every flight would need to have at least one flight attendant who is qualified and capable of piloting that specific plane. How many flight attendants would be flight attendants if they were trained to be a pilot?

Short Flights

man flying helicopter

Some might argue that flights under an hour might offer the possibility of a single pilot cockpit. I contend the opposite. The flight duration does not reduce the danger level. For short flights, that danger level might even increase. Commercial jumbo jets do not run themselves. Like driver assisted motor vehicles, commercial jets require someone to read the controls and understand if the automated systems are functioning correctly.

With only one set of eyes on the controls, it’s easy to miss critical information. Additionally, cockpits are designed to have two sets of eyes and hands. One pilot cannot reach over and touch the far controls that would be handled by a co-pilot. Unless jumbo jet owners plan to retrofit the ergonomics of every cockpit’s controls to accommodate a single pilot’s reach, a single pilot might be required to stand up and move to the second station to mess with those controls. Yes, most controls are right in front of the pilot, some may not be on some cockpit designs. In other words, one size may not fit all in this scenario.

Still, short flights are just as dangerous as any longer flight.

Long Flights

For international flights which might be 13-20 hours, you can’t expect a single pilot to work that many hours continuously. That flight must have at least two pilots simply to handle the shifts require to prevent overwork fatigue. On top of that, pilots need breaks. Who’s going to watch the cockpit when he or she needs a nature break? A flight attendant?

For a single pilot cockpit, on long haul flights, is that pilot simply going to leave the cockpit to go take a snooze for hours? Yeah, for long haul flights, it’s simply not practical. At least two pilots are a must. There’s no other way.

Remote Control

photo of man holding remote control while looking upwards

Some have argued that having the ground control able to remote control the flight safely from the ground could become a workable solution for a one pilot cockpit. Right now, we’re nowhere near allowing flight control to safely control a jumbo jet from the ground to a safe landing. Should that become a reality in the future, perhaps pilot free cockpits might work.

There are literal dead spots between control towers that would see a jumbo jet crash. We simply don’t have reliable means to remote control a jet through its entire journey, particularly those flying over open ocean areas where radio contact can sometimes not even be available.

Airlines and Cost Cutting

Airlines can’t just cut the flight crew down to one and “hope for the best”. That’s entirely reckless. It doesn’t matter how young or fit or well or able bodied that a pilot is. Health conditions can come on suddenly and incapacitate someone at any age… even simply from eating a bad meal on board a flight. The point here is that if pilots are reduced to one, every airline is rolling dice in the hopes that nothing bad happens. It’s pretty much guaranteed that allowing a one pilot system would very likely lead to more deaths in the airline industry.

Overworked Pilots

If pilots think they’re being overworked now with this pilot shortage, moving to a single pilot cockpit is most definitely going to cause even more fatigue and burnout with the existing pilots. Being a single pilot in the cockpit puts all of the flight stress and pressure onto one person who could easily make a mistake without knowing it. That’s tough. If commercial airlines want to chase away pilots, moving to single pilots is most definitely the way to do it.

The whole point to a second pilot is for the second pilot to check the first pilot’s work and suggest any corrections. The point in a team is to manage the flight together and agree that everything has been done correctly or disagree and correct the problem. Without that second person, there is no possibility of disagreement.

There’s no way to call any airline safe who chooses to practice having only one pilot at the controls.

Flight Attendant Training

To become a flight attendant, a person must go through rigorous safety training which lasts weeks. Some training can last months, depending on the airline’s requirements. Flight attendants must also reaffirm their training at least once a year to remain certified with the FAA. This training consists of medical training along with safety exercises such as how to safely and quickly evacuate everyone from a plane in emergency conditions using the evacuation slides.

They also learn how to perform their duties and must take practice flights to better understand what’s required of them while in flight.

If a flight attendant is also required to know how to pinch fly a jumbo jet, that takes their training to a whole new level. As stated above, if they’re effectively required to get a pilot’s license, then why become a flight attendant?

Airlines must either force some flight attendants into pilot’s training or technology must catch up to allow for remote control piloting. Either road leads to obstacles for airlines… and may simply shift the problem to a different business area. While it might help to reduce pilot shortages, it may move those shortages to flight attendants or in flight controllers. It’s never a workable solution to think you can make one change and not affect a whole lot of other people down the line. That’s exactly what will happen here.

Would you fly a commercial airline with only one pilot?

Sound off in the comments below.

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