Random Thoughts – Randocity!

Can the Xbox One catch up to the PS4 this year?

Posted in business, video gaming by commorancy on August 21, 2015

ps4-system-imageblock-us-13jun14We all know that Sony’s PS4 has outsold the Xbox One fairly substantially. However, will moving into this holiday season help or hurt the Xbox One? Let’s explore.

Halo 5

In October, we will see the next installment of Halo 5 released. This is unusual in that this title usually releases in November. I’m assuming that Microsoft is attempting to gain an early head start in console sales. I’m also certain that Microsoft is hoping that Halo 5 (an exclusive Xbox One title) will push consoles off the shelves. The problem is, however, UltraHD 4K.

4K TVs and Consoles

With HDTVs rapidly dropping in price and especially 4K TVs (there are several sub $1000 models), this spells a big problem for console manufacturers. I’m sure it wasn’t expected to see prices of 4K TVs dropping this rapidly this soon. None of the Xbox One, PS4 or Wii U currently support 4K content or 4K TVs. This is shaping into a much bigger problem and is especially a problem for Microsoft and Sony. Without the ability to deliver 4K content to these sub $1000 4K TVs, many people are going to be hard pressed to justify the investment in a $500 console that doesn’t support 4K. So, not even Halo 5 may be able to budge many of those consoles off the shelves, at least not to existing Xbox One owners.

Personally, I’m not planning on investing in any new console systems until there’s 4K support. When Sony and Microsoft can finally get off their collective butts and release a 4K HDMI 2.0 or HDMI 2.2 console version, I will definitely consider replacing my existing consoles, but not until that happens.

Of course, I already own a PS4 and Xbox One. I got both day one, but I’ve recently bought a 4K TV. Barring Netflix and Amazon, there’s effectively no 4K content. Still, it does make my 1080p content look amazingly clear without all that annoying pixelation so common in 1080p TVs.

Console Purchasing and the Holidays

Because 4K TVs are now becoming more commonplace and because 1080p TVs will likely be mostly a distant memory in even just 2 years, it’s hard to justify a $500 expense only to replace it in 6 months or a year. It’s not worth it. Additionally, you can buy a video game at any time after it’s released, but it doesn’t have to be on day one. You can just as easily play Halo 5 in spring of 2016 as you can in the fall of 2015. Yes, there are a lot of day-oners out there (must have it the moment it’s released), but because of the deluge of titles in the fall, it’s easy to pick and choose which ones to leave for later. This means you can delay that console purchase or buying that game until the 4K version arrives.

Yes, Halo 5 will push some consoles off the shelves. But, those looking for a 4K version will likely wait. I’m definitely waiting for the console refresh from Sony and Microsoft. For whatever reason, both of these companies are taking their sweet time to provide this refresh. In fact, Sony should have pushed out this refresh as part of the fall game launch. Sony being at the forefront of the 4K revolution makes it ever more important for Sony to finally get this refresh out the door. It’s even more important to get this refresh out for holiday purchases even if we can’t take advantage of the 4K content yet. Though, I know that Sony’s video on demand services for use with the Sony 4K UltraHD Media Player already offers a very large number of 4K movies. There’s no reason not to get this technology into the PS4 and widen that audience. Not only will it widen the audience for their movie services, it also immediately widens their game playing audience. In this case, were Sony to release this 4K refresh faster than Microsoft, Sony would have tremendous advantage both in sales and in gaming.

Sales Advantage

It’s clear, which ever company gets out their 4K refresh faster, they will have a sales advantage. As I said, considering Sony’s involvement in 4K, it makes perfect sense for Sony to get this refresh out now.

I don’t believe even Halo 5 sales could argue with a Sony 4K hardware refresh. People would think twice about buying an Xbox One until Microsoft also provided a 4K Xbox One refresh themselves. Should Sony release first, it would push Sony’s PS4 much higher in sales numbers because many existing PS4 owners would immediately replace their existing PS4. I know I would. So, that means double sales. Sales to everyone who already has a PS4 and to those who don’t. Of course, this would happen with the Xbox One as well once their 4K refresh is available.

Though, should the Xbox One and PS4 4K edition release together, I would still buy the PS4 version first unless Microsoft released the Xbox One 4K version with a 4K 60Hz playable version of Halo 5. There is currently no franchise title that Sony owns that is that compelling. But, were Black Ops III or Fallout 4 to support 4K, I’d be hard pressed not to consider a 4K PS4.

I personally believe that Sony is currently more likely to release a 4K refresh sooner than Xbox One. Microsoft doesn’t embrace new technologies quickly, especially when Sony is one of the primary proponents of that new technology.

Ultra HD 4K Content

Today, there’s not much 4K content. The drought of 4K content is about as severe as California’s rainfall levels. This can all change with a console refresh. Consoles are quickly becoming the ubiquitous media outlet for the home, especially for children. With a console refresh from Sony, that immediately picks up a relatively large number of 4K movies. With the addition of developers taking advantage of 4K gaming, that opens up a huge new door (literally pixel-wise). While that number of pixels is immense, it offers a brand new immersive level of gaming that hasn’t yet been achieved. Yes, it requires producing much bigger content, but the games will be spectacular, the environments breathtaking and the realism levels achieved would be astounding.

The problem today is that most developers can’t even grasp 1080p. So, I do not expect 4K gaming any time soon. Perhaps from the Call of Duty brand and possibly from Microsoft’s Halo (if 343 can figure it out). But, smaller companies like Atlus and even larger ones like Bethesda struggle with high def gaming. If we can get one HD title out of a developer per year, I consider that a win. With Ultra HD 4K content, I’d expect it might even take 2 years per title. That would suck at not having a new game every year, but 4K is where we’re going and Sony, Microsoft, Bethesda, Ubisoft, EA, Square Enix and the rest would do best to take heed. Not only does gaming want 4K, we need it to move forward. In fact, it should have been included in the original PS4 as Sony already had a 4K TV available at the time the PS4 was released. If Sony had had the foresight to create the PS4 with 4K, I wouldn’t even be writing this article.

Ultra HD’s Time Has Come

ultra_hd_blu-ray_logo_uhd_bd_bluray_logo_6501Sony, release your 4K refresh with the Ultra HD blu-ray spec. Microsoft, release your refresh with a 4K Halo 5. Because these two consoles are on the cusp of 4K, I’m anxiously awaiting their release. I won’t consider a new console purchase until these are out. Because they are so close, I would suggest you wait also. I would love to see any 4K console refresh for this holiday season. I’d love to see Halo 5 running in 4K. In fact, I’d love to play pretty much any of this holiday’s season games including Fallout 4, Halo 5, Black Ops III, Just Cause 3 and Star Wars in 60hz 4K. That would be an amazing holiday gift this season.

How not to run a business (Part 10.2) — Case Study: Trust

Posted in botch, business by commorancy on August 1, 2015

A business is as good as the trust it practices. Trust is a crucial element in gaining new business. If prospects cannot trust you or what you offer, trust that your business is genuinely there to help your customer, trust that you will provide a high quality service, your business will not succeed. Trust is mission critical to business success. Let’s explore.

Kickstarter

Recently, you may have heard about the H+ Holus project on Kickstarter. Its premise is to create a display device that can provide a wide variety of viewing angles. Some words used to describe the device include ‘holographic’, ‘holographic experience’ and ‘3D’.  From the link above, the description states,

Holus provides a blend between the digital and real world by converting any digital content into a 3D holographic experience

To visually get the point across, H+ uploaded some CG representations of what the finished product might look like… including this video….


By Day 3 of this Kickstarter project, the project had already been funded the amount of $200k CAD. So here’s where things get a little dicey with both this project and Kickstarter when complaints begin to roll in. At the end, the Holus project raised $297,790 CAD. Some sites are already asking if the Holus is the most expensive scam in Kickstarter history. Reddit readers state these grievances of the Holus device.

Kickstarter’s rules are clear on misrepresentation. In the above video, it is clearly shown that as the camera moves, so does the 3D of the imagery. With Pepper’s Ghost and a flat screen, this is not possible which misrepresents the capabilities of this device. In other words, Kickstarter doesn’t allow realistic 3D rendered concept photos or videos as part of the project. Including photos of the prototype or drawings of the concept is perfectly fine. However, 3D realistic images depicting a concept are not acceptable and Kickstarter’s rules prohibit the use of such imagery.

3D Displays

We all know what these are. They’re basically your flat screen TV with shutter glasses. They’re cumbersome to use, give you headaches and, in general, are mostly a novelty. Yet, this is the state of 3D displays in 2015. No, we do not yet have floating displays such as what’s shown in Minority Report or Avatar. These displays, if even possible, are years away from becoming reality. Yet, here we are on Kickstarter with a small company claiming they’re about to produce a 3D Holographic display. Frankly, it’s not possible. What Holus offers is no better than Pepper’s Ghost.

Pepper’s Ghost is a technology that dates back to 1862 and is named after John Henry Pepper who discovered the illusion. A Pepper’s Ghost display has no relationship to holograms or holography, further misrepresenting the display. What Holus offers is a flat screen reflected off of a transparent surface. Because the screen located in the roof of the cabinet is flat, it’s definitely not 3D (without using glasses). Worse, there are already devices like this available on Amazon right now for the iPhone for $10.99. Visit Amazon and compare.

Holus Deception

Whether the H+ folks intended to deceive or were naïve about what they could show on Kickstarter, it doesn’t really matter from a fraud management perspective. The listing violated Kickstarter’s rules. Yet, Kickstarter did nothing to stop or prevent this listing from continuing. In fact, it seems that Kickstarter even awarded the Holus Kickstarter Project as a staff pick at some point. When this listing was brought to Kickstarter’s attention for misrepresentation, they ignored the warnings and allowed the project to fund anyway.

Trust

As a CEO, it is important to maintain trust with all of your customers. If you don’t attempt to maintain that trust, your business is hopelessly lost.  Case in point… Kickstarter CEO Yancey Strickler leaves a comment on Joanie Lemercier’s ‘covering up a scam’ blog article after she and several others unsuccessfully attempt to bring this misrepresented project to the attention of Kickstarter. Strickler’s comment is defensive and deflecting. Here’s what Strickler has to say (full comment below):

Hi Joanie —

Yancey from Kickstarter here.

I’m responding, in part, to thank you for the attention you’ve paid to the Holus project. We’ve seen a lot of debate and strong feelings around the project, and we’ve heard a lot of questions about our policies and how we enforce them. I’d love to clear up a few things about how we did so in this case.

Part of the issue we’ve seen with this project revolves around words like “hologram,” “holographic,” and “holographic experience,” which people have come to use in so many different colloquial ways. Some of our most-discussed “holograms” — Tupac Shakur’s appearance at Coachella, CNN’s election-night guests — aren’t holograms at all. Even Microsoft bills its HoloLens as a holographic product. There’s an odd lack of clarity involved in what many people mean and understand when they say the words.

So in this case, our approach was to focus in on how Holus actually worked. We asked the Holus team to post an update that demonstrated, clearly and openly, exactly what they were working on. They responded with a public update that outlined the technique they use. That update was emailed to backers of the project, to help make sure everyone involved was fully clear on what they were supporting and what they could expect.

Then there’s the question of our rules for hardware projects. First, we require creators to show prototypes of their work. Second, we prohibit them from using photorealistic renderings.

Holus satisfied the first rule, posting a number of demo videos and documentation showing working prototypes. But when the project originally launched, it included CGI renderings. We informed them that this was strictly prohibited; they promptly removed the material. They also emailed backers to clarify their process, including a video demonstrating their iterative prototypes.

And last, there’s the question of the staff pick. Holus was originally selected as one, until we spotted and received reports about CGI renderings. We immediately removed the staff pick status, and asked the Holus team to remove the badge they’d added to their project image. (Staff pick badges aren’t a part of our system; we don’t create them or provide them. Actually, we strongly advise creators not to use them at all.) They promptly did so.

In other words, the project conformed to our stated rules, added more information on request, and made a transparent, good-faith effort to thoroughly inform backers about the nature of their work. Based on that, we continued to monitor it, but allowed it to remain on the site. The question then became: were people interested in backing it?

And this is the part where you — and the broader Kickstarter community watching these projects — become invaluable. One of the reasons Kickstarter uses all-or-nothing funding is because it gives everyone involved in a project time to really research what the creators are doing, discuss it with others, and come to a collective decision about whether it’s still worth supporting. Ultimately, it’s backers who decide what gets funding, not us.

That’s why we’re always grateful to anyone who joins in the public debate about projects, asks tough questions about the claims they’re hearing, and shares their expertise with other backers. That kind of discussion is crucial, especially when it comes to new technology. It helps our Integrity team monitor projects for problems or violations of our rules — as we did throughout the Holus campaign. It helps backers vet ideas and make the most informed decisions possible. It holds creators to a high standard, and helps them build stronger communities. It does all these things no matter what action Kickstarter winds up needing to take, and whether projects succeed or fail.

And that’s why I’d like to thank you — and to say that, if you’ve chosen not to get involved in any more projects, we’re sad to hear it. The role you played in this one is incredibly important. Members like you are welcome in this community any time: you make things better for everyone involved.

Cheers
Yancey

This is not the type of diatribe I expect to hear from a CEO. CEO’s are the top agent of the company. They are the person who investigates wrongdoing and the person who puts a stop to it. No where above did Yancey even mention investigation, taking the strictest action or in doing anything to prevent such an occurrence in the future. Sure, they requested the prohibited content removal, but only after the project was already mostly funded. Kickstarter also didn’t apparently require full disclosure of this content removal to the backers.

Instead, he defends the project and states that it is the backer’s responsibility to post meaningful discussions, debate the project and then choose or not choose to back based on these comments. That’s all well and good until Joanie points out in a later blog post that in among other behaviors by Kickstarter to ignore the project and let it proceed, Kickstarter also

DELETED the embarrassing questions asked in the project comments (see screenshots).

When Kickstarter deletes comments that could help backers make informed decisions, that ultimately means that Kickstarter no longer respects the backers and is in it to make sure the project succeeds whether it’s a real project or not. This also means that Kickstarter is in it for the money they will get from the project rather than protecting backers from fraud. This is a serious breach of trust and one that should resonate to every backer who has ever backed a project at Kickstarter.

In fact, Joanie points out all of the trust related issues around this Kickstarter project:

YOU DID NOT REPLY to the official ‘reports’ made from day 1 (except email auto-replies).
YOU DID NOT LISTEN to the experts: Jason Sapan has been making real holograms in NYC for over 40 years, he warned you about the fraud.
YOU DIDN’T CARE TO COMMENT  the 3 in-depth articles (123) written by Raphaël de Courville about his investigations on the scam.
YOU DELETED the embarrassing questions asked in the project comments (see screenshots).
YOU DID NOT MODERATE messages from suspicious accounts (1 – 2) and Holus partner comments (1) who broke another rule.
BACKERS WERE NEVER INFORMED about the replacement of prohibited CGI and removal of staff pick status.

There were probably even more behaviors not documented here, but these are enough to show that even though Kickstarter was made aware of the project early in its life, Kickstarter ignored it all and even colluded in making sure the project appeared to be legitimate.

Even Yancey’s comment to Joanie attempts to justify the above actions in an obtuse fashion.

Business Don’t — Don’t allow fraud on your service

This is probably one of the biggest business don’ts I’ve ever documented in this series. You don’t do what Kickstarter did. If you establish rules by which the community must follow, then you need to ensure they are enforced regardless of outcome. Even if you stand to lose 20% of that 200k or whatever Kickstarter’s commission is, that is chump change compared to the trust you’ve lost from your community and the possible legal ramifications you face (which I guarantee will cost you more money than any commission you’d make from the fraud). Your community keeps you in business. For this reason, this trust case is worth studying. It’s worth realizing what not to do when running your business.

In Kickstarter’s case, the appropriate action would have been to delist and refund all backers before the project closed. Then, request the project owner to relist the project using drawings or other imagery that doesn’t violate Kickstarter’s terms… instead of silently requesting the images be removed without letting the existing backers know… instead of removing key discussions from the project to inform backers of what this project really is… instead of ignoring emails ultimately saying that the project is fraudulent.

Fraud is a very real possibility anywhere and everywhere, especially with crowdfunded projects. Fraud is intentional misrepresentation of something. It’s against the law in the US and the US government investigates and takes legal action against those who commit fraud against buyers. Allowing fraud to exist on your own web service and then doing nothing about it once you become aware is collusion and makes your business as much liable as the person who set up the fraudulent listing in the first place. The one thing you cannot know is intent and intent is the difference between innocent misrepresentation and outright fraud. However, to the government, intent doesn’t matter, only the outcome. As a business, you must error on the side of caution and assume the intent is intentional misrepresentation, which means taking the strictest action possible and forcibly removing the offensive content from your site. If your business cannot protect its own customer, then no one will and you’ve lost your customer’s trust. They trust you to be their advocate against thieves, scams and fraud when they are using your service. When you fail at protecting your customer from fraud, your company has failed.

Were someone to bring legal action against Kickstarter and H+ for the alleged fraud of this project, there is definitely enough evidence that Kickstarter could be held liable and culpable in this activity.

Enforcing Business Rules

Once you establish business rules by which your clients must abide, you need to absolutely enforce those rules by the strictest of actions in every case. If you allow even one client to slide by the rules, your business could end up in court. If you are on the other end of a Kickstarter project and you choose not to deliver on your backer rewards, the US Government will come after you. Fraud is a federal crime and can lead your business into a lot of federal legal problems. Ed Nash found this out the hard way when his company, Altius Management, failed to deliver the $25k Kickstarted funded Asylum card game in 2012.

Failure to provide the necessary level of trust through enforcement of your rules could lead your business into bankruptcy. In this case, Kickstarter’s woes are just starting. How this all ends for Kickstarter is yet to be known, but it’s probably not going to end well. How this ends for H+ and the Holus device is yet to be seen, but delivering a Pepper’s Ghost to backers will likely lead to outrage.

Part 10 | Chapter Index | Part 11

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